Ethereum faces resistance around 4.500 USD due to technical structure, derivatives hedging and irregular institutional flows

Ethereum’s price repeatedly meets a resistance level near 4.500 USD that prevents sustained breakouts. This behavior reflects a combination of order book liquidity walls, professional traders’ demand for protection and uneven ETF/institutional flows that together generate selling pressure at that threshold.

Technical resistance and market structure

The 4.500 USD level acts as both a psychological and operational block with concentrated sell orders absorbing marginal buys. Order books show clusters of sell liquidity in that range, and volume and momentum indicators have not confirmed a decisive breakout, so without sustained buyer volume moves above the level tend to stall or retrace.

Derivatives and hedging behavior

Caution in options and futures markets, reflected in demand for out-of-the-money puts and high premiums, leads institutions and market makers to buy protection. To hedge those positions market makers and other operators may sell futures or spot ETH, which generates episodic selling pressure that reinforces rejections at resistance levels.

ETF flows, on-chain liquidity and macro expectations

ETF inflows and outflows are inconsistent and withdrawal bursts, combined with whale movements and limited order book depth, prevent sustained buying that could break liquidity walls. Reductions in exchange reserves and transfers from large holders affect volatility depending on timing, while macro policy decisions and priced-in expectations about network upgrades can act as catalysts for selling when uncertainty or delays arise.

Conclusion and practical implications

A validated breakout above 4.500 USD requires a sustained increase in buying volume, reduced demand for protective puts and continuous inflows together with deeper liquidity on exchanges. Monitoring derivatives demand, ETF flows and exchange reserves will be key to identifying whether the market can overcome the current resistance, otherwise price will likely continue testing and being rejected at that threshold despite longer-term fundamental support.