Approval Odds, Filings and Timeline
The market is currently weighing the possibility of a spot Solana ETF, with recent price movements reflecting this anticipation. Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence estimate the odds of eventual approval at a high 90-95%, a sentiment echoed by prediction markets like Polymarket, which price the chance of a 2025 approval at 99%. This optimism is driven by filings from major asset managers including VanEck, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton.
The process, however, involves significant regulatory scrutiny. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is actively reviewing these applications, with a key focus on whether the market for SOL can meet the same surveillance-sharing standards that were crucial for Bitcoin ETF approvals. This review process means a final decision may not arrive until the fourth quarter of 2025 or even early 2026. The high approval odds reflect a belief that Solana’s market structure will ultimately satisfy the SEC’s requirements, paving the way for a new wave of institutional investment.
Market Scenarios and Expected Impacts if Approved
The potential approval of a spot SOL ETF is seen as a watershed moment that could significantly alter the token’s market dynamics. Analysts project a wide range of outcomes. Bullish forecasts suggest a price surge towards $300-$500 as pension funds and other large institutions gain a regulated pathway to gain exposure. This would likely lead to a substantial increase in spot trading volume and futures market activity.
However, there are also cautious notes. Some analysts warn that the market could experience volatility from large token unlocks or profit-taking after an initial surge, which could temporarily push prices lower. For ETF issuers, launching the product requires upgrading complex systems for custody, compliance (KYC), and auditing, which can add time to the launch process.
In essence, the SEC’s upcoming decision will be critical. A positive verdict could integrate SOL into the traditional financial system, leading to a steadier phase of institutional ownership. A rejection, or significant delays, could prolong the current period of uncertainty. The timing of the decision will likely determine whether the current market dip is a brief pause or the start of a more sustained move.
