On October 2, 2025, XRP saw a significant price increase of 5%, climbing to trade near $2.97. This rally was primarily fueled by the announcement of a new institutional lending service from Japan’s SBI Group and growing anticipation for the first wave of U.S. spot ETF decisions, the first of which is expected from the SEC on October 18.
Context and Impact
The launch of SBI’s XRP lending program for institutional payments marks a significant step in the token’s adoption within traditional finance. This initiative by a major Japanese financial conglomerate highlights a push toward large-scale, practical use of XRP for improving cross-border settlement flows. This move deepens the existing, long-standing partnership between SBI and Ripple, which dates back to 2016 through their joint venture, SBI Ripple Asia.
The rally saw trading volumes spike to more than double the daily average, with over 160 million tokens changing hands. This surge in activity indicates strong institutional demand and helped push the price through key resistance levels.
ETF timeline, Technical Levels and Implications
All eyes are now on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has a deadline of October 18, 2025, to decide on the first of several spot XRP ETF applications. This date frames the next major test for XRP, with a potential breakout toward the psychologically important $3.00 level hanging in the balance.
From a technical perspective, the current setup is strong. Support has firmly established itself at $2.93 after being successfully defended multiple times, while immediate resistance is situated between $2.96 and $2.98. Analysts note that XRP is trading above its key exponential moving averages (EMAs), including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, which is interpreted as a bullish signal. For the momentum to continue, a decisive daily close above the $2.98-$3.00 zone is crucial.
Implications
The implications of these developments are substantial. The approval of a spot XRP ETF would be a watershed moment, likely unlocking billions of dollars in institutional capital and potentially creating a supply squeeze as large amounts of XRP are pulled off exchanges to back the funds.
However, regulatory risks remain. The final outcome of the Ripple lawsuit and the SEC’s decisions on the ETF applications will continue to be the main drivers of market sentiment and liquidity in the coming weeks.
Key Points
The situation for XRP is defined by a few key points:
-
Institutional Adoption: SBI Group has launched an institutional XRP lending service, validating its utility in payments.
-
Regulatory Milestone: The first SEC decision on a spot XRP ETF is due on October 18, 2025.
-
Technical Landscape: Key support is at $2.93, with resistance at $2.96-$2.98. A break above $3.00 could signal a new upward leg.
-
Ongoing Risk: The market remains sensitive to regulatory news and the final rulings in the Ripple case.
The October 18 SEC decision is poised to set the tone for XRP’s liquidity and price trajectory for the remainder of the year. Traders and investors are closely watching for a conclusive break above the $3.00 level, which could confirm the strength of the current bullish momentum.