The crypto market in 2025 has presented a tale of two realities: Bitcoin’s relentless, institution-driven rally has largely left memecoins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and the Trump token (TRUMP) in the dust. However, as the year enters its final quarter, mixed signals from on-chain data and shifting market narratives are setting the stage for a potential, though risky, memecoin comeback.
The Great Divergence: Bitcoin Dominates
The story of 2025 has been one of Bitcoin’s dominance. While Bitcoin (BTC) has extended its bull market to fresh highs above $125,000, top memecoins have struggled to keep pace.
This divergence highlights a structural shift in the market. Institutional investors, drawn by the regulatory clarity of spot ETFs, have poured over $20 billion into these products since 2024. This institutional demand has created a supply crisis, with Bitcoin balances on centralized exchanges hitting multi-year lows. Meanwhile, capital that once fueled memecoin mania has rotated elsewhere, with data showing a more than 75% decline in the creation of new Solana-based memecoins since July.
Dogecoin: A Glimmer of Hope Amidst Uncertainty
Dogecoin finds itself at a technical crossroads. Despite a challenging year, some analysts see potential for a late-year revival.
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Technical Setup: DOGE is forming what appears to be an ascending triangle pattern. A decisive breakout above the $0.28 level could signal a bullish continuation, with one analysis pointing to a year-end target of $0.41.
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Conflicting Data: The on-chain signals are split, creating uncertainty. While clusters of whale wallets have been observed adding significant amounts of DOGE, exchange inflows have also risen—a combination that often precedes selling pressure.
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The ETF Wild Card: A significant potential catalyst on the horizon is the filing for a Dogecoin ETF. Approval by the SEC could unlock a wave of institutional demand, but its realization remains uncertain.
TRUMP Token: Powered by Politics and Speculation
The Trump token’s value is intrinsically tied to political narratives and the actions of a few large holders, making its path highly volatile.
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Political Catalyst: The token has experienced renewed interest following the launch of World Liberty Financial and its associated stablecoin, with its open interest—a measure of total derivative market activity—surging by over 26% in a single day.
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Significant Risks: The TRUMP token’s float is highly concentrated, with a significant portion controlled by a small number of wallets. This concentration means that a decision by a single large holder to exit could drastically impact the price. Its value is also vulnerable to shifts in political sentiment and campaign news.
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Technical Outlook: After a steep decline from its highs, TRUMP is testing key resistance levels. A breakout above its multi-month descending trendline could open the door for a recovery, while a failure to do so risks another pullback.
Navigating the Memecoin Minefield
For traders and observers, the final quarter of 2025 demands a cautious and disciplined approach to these assets.
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Acknowledge the High Stakes: Memecoins remain the wild west of crypto—highly speculative and driven by narrative and social engagement rather than fundamental utility. Their low liquidity can lead to parabolic gains but also to sharp retracements.
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Watch the Whales and the Calendar: The actions of large wallet holders provide crucial clues. Furthermore, for TRUMP, any major political developments could serve as immediate price catalysts.
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Manage Risk Above All: Given the potential for “20% intraday swings”, any exposure to these markets should be sized appropriately, with clear entry and exit strategies.
The fourth quarter will be a critical test for memecoins, determining whether they can reclaim relevance or continue to be overshadowed by Bitcoin’s institutional tide.
