A recent forecast from Standard Chartered sends a striking message about the future of money: up to $1 trillion could leave emerging market banks and flow into US dollar-backed stablecoins by 2028. This isn’t just a prediction of crypto growth, but a signal of a fundamental shift in how households and businesses in certain economies choose to save, moving their capital out of traditional local bank accounts and into digital dollar tokens.
The Driving Forces Behind the Shift
This potential exodus is fueled by a search for stability. In emerging markets with weak local currencies and high inflation, stablecoins effectively function as accessible, digital US dollar accounts. They offer a “low-friction path to USD exposure” that can be more attractive than traditional local banking, with users often prioritizing the preservation of their capital’s value over earning interest.
Analysts highlight that countries with characteristics like high inflation, weak foreign exchange reserves, and significant remittance flows are particularly vulnerable to this kind of deposit flight. Standard Chartered’s research specifically points to Egypt, Pakistan, Colombia, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka as being among the most exposed.
Regulation as a Catalyst for Change
The passage of the GENIUS Act in the US in July 2025 has introduced a crucial element of regulatory clarity. This law establishes a federal framework for stablecoins, mandating that they are fully backed by safe assets like U.S. Treasuries and cash. For users in emerging markets, this reinforces the perception of stablecoins as a trustworthy and lower-risk alternative to holding savings in their local banking system.
Implications for Banks and Corporate Treasurers
A shift of this magnitude would directly tighten liquidity for banks in affected emerging markets, as a core source of their funding moves elsewhere. This introduces new complexities for corporate treasurers operating in these regions. They may face a changing liquidity landscape while also needing to develop new expertise to manage exposures that involve stablecoins.
On the other hand, this trend also presents a significant opportunity. Stablecoins can be powerful tools for corporate treasury operations, enabling faster and more cost-effective cross-border transfers by bypassing slow correspondent banking networks. This can dramatically improve capital efficiency, especially when moving funds across different international operations.
The next few years will be a critical test, showing how deeply this technology will integrate into the global financial system and redefine the flow of capital.
