VanEck’s projection of Bitcoin reaching approximately $644,000 by the 2028 halving is a bold forecast that hinges on Bitcoin capturing half of gold’s market capitalization. This vision is supported by a convergence of powerful trends, from generational shifts in investment preference to profound changes in institutional infrastructure.
The Rationale Behind the Prediction
The core of VanEck’s thesis, as outlined by their Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, is that Bitcoin is increasingly seen as “digital gold”—a modern store of value for a new generation. The $644,000 price target is directly tied to this asset class transition, representing a market capitalization roughly half of gold’s, which is often cited to be in the range of $13 to $26 trillion.
Several key drivers are expected to propel this growth. Firstly, surveys indicate that younger investors, particularly in emerging markets, are showing a strong preference for Bitcoin over gold for storing wealth. Secondly, the scheduled Bitcoin “halving” in 2028 will programmatically cut the issuance of new BTC, creating a supply shock that historically precedes major price rallies. Finally, the recent emergence of regulated financial pathways, like spot Bitcoin ETFs, has unlocked a massive pool of institutional capital that was previously unable to invest. This is not merely theoretical; in 2025 alone, Bitcoin ETFs and other institutional vehicles have seen record inflows, demonstrating tangible and growing demand.
A Roadmap of Adoption and Growth
Achieving this ambitious target is not expected to happen overnight. Analysts suggest a more measured trajectory, where Bitcoin could reach 30% to 50% of gold’s market cap within a decade, implying a price range of $300,000 to $500,000 by around 2035. Looking even further, VanEck’s long-term analysis suggests that if Bitcoin evolves to settle a portion of global trade, it could lead to central banks allocating a small percentage of their reserves to BTC, creating a new, powerful source of demand.
This institutional adoption is projected to unfold in distinct phases. The current phase involves the integration of Bitcoin ETFs into retirement plans and early pension fund allocations. This is expected to be followed by a wave of corporate treasury adoption, similar to MicroStrategy’s pioneering model, and the approval of Bitcoin products in European and Asian markets. This multi-phase adoption could create a sustained demand cycle against a backdrop of dwindling new supply.
A Grounded Perspective
While the long-term thesis is compelling, it is wise to consider balanced perspectives. Some market experts, like Derek Lim of Caladan, agree with VanEck’s direction but caution on the timeline, suggesting that a 5-to-10-year horizon for reaching half of gold’s market cap is more realistic than a single market cycle. This view acknowledges Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class, which has led to more stable growth but potentially less explosive short-term surges.
The path to $644,000 is a narrative of structural transformation in finance. It is a test of whether Bitcoin’s digital scarcity and growing utility can help it close the gap with gold’s millennia-old store of value monopoly. For institutional managers and corporate treasuries, this forecast provides a powerful framework for evaluating long-term strategic allocations.
