A Test of Resilience for HBAR
In a challenging period for the broader crypto market, Hedera (HBAR) has demonstrated notable resilience. While the token has experienced pressure, with its price declining around 26% over the past month, it’s important to view this within a larger context. Despite the recent pullback, HBAR has still achieved impressive yearly gains of over 218%, significantly outperforming the average for other Layer 1 tokens. This contrast between short-term volatility and long-term strength is a key point for funds and legal teams to consider when assessing liquidity and risk.
The current technical picture presents a mixed but cautiously optimistic signal. As of October 23, 2025, HBAR is trading around $0.167. Key momentum indicators are hovering in neutral territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at approximately 46, suggesting the selling pressure is not yet severe. However, the token is trading below several important moving averages, which indicates that sellers have had the upper hand in the near term. For this dynamic to flip, a sustained move above the $0.19 level is crucial, which would signal a potential recovery is underway.
Navigating Supply Dynamics and Market Catalysts
The path forward for HBAR is being shaped by a tug-of-war between encouraging demand and a known future supply increase. On the demand side, the network continues to see solid fundamental growth. The Hedera ecosystem has been advancing with key developments in tokenization and stablecoin adoption, which bolster its long-term utility proposition. Furthermore, the potential for a U.S. ETF decision and other regulatory milestones in Q4 2025 remains a significant wild card that could dramatically redraw demand expectations.
The most significant factor that funds are monitoring is the impending token unlock. A substantial overhang of 3 billion coins is set to be released onto the market. This event represents a major test for HBAR’s price stability, as it introduces the risk of significant selling pressure. The market’s ability to absorb this new supply will be a critical determinant of HBAR’s price trajectory in the coming months, making it a pivotal focus for risk assessment.
The Crucial Interplay with Bitcoin
For all altcoins, including HBAR, the direction of Bitcoin remains the dominant market driver. HBAR has shown a strong historical correlation with Bitcoin’s price movements. A decisive break by Bitcoin above key resistance levels could pull HBAR and the rest of the market upward, providing a powerful tailwind. Conversely, if Bitcoin faces a significant correction, it would likely create strong headwinds for HBAR, potentially overshadowing its positive fundamental developments.
In summary, HBAR is at a critical technical juncture. The battle between bullish fundamentals and a major token unlock will define its near-term path. For now, the key levels to watch are the $0.19 resistance overhead and the $0.16 support below. A confirmed break in either direction, heavily influenced by Bitcoin’s momentum, will set the tone for the next major move.
