Shiba Inu (SHIB) is navigating a challenging period, caught between a weakening broader crypto market and its own internal ecosystem dynamics. Its recent pullback is part of a complex picture where technical pressures, shifting on-chain behavior, and fundamental supply challenges converge.
The Weight of the Wider Market
The primary headwind for SHIB has been the bearish turn in the overall cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin. In late October and early November 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) broke below its critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a key indicator of long-term trend health. This event often triggers a risk-off sentiment across digital assets, particularly impacting altcoins like Shiba Inu. When Bitcoin struggles, it typically creates a tide that lowers all boats, and SHIB’s 5% retreat is a reflection of this environment.
A Closer Look at SHIB’s Position
Beyond the general market slump, specific factors are influencing SHIB’s price action. The token recently demonstrated resilience by closing October without falling to a new low, stabilizing around the $0.00001020 level. However, it continues to trade below its own 200-day SMA, which has historically acted as resistance, indicating that bullish momentum has been hard to sustain.
On-chain data reveals mixed signals. While there are concerns about large holders moving tokens to exchanges, recent analytics also point to potential seller exhaustion. A key factor to watch is whale activity; data shows that conviction from large-scale investors can help solidify support levels, with significant buying sometimes occurring near the $0.00001060 territory.
The Fundamental Hurdle of Token Supply
A persistent challenge for Shiba Inu is the sheer scale of its circulating supply, which stands at approximately 589 trillion tokens. This brings the effectiveness of its token burn mechanism into question. While the community actively engages in burning tokens—with events like 1.3 billion SHIB being removed from circulation—the impact on the overall price remains minimal due to the enormous supply. For context, reaching a price of $0.0001 would require SHIB’s market capitalization to grow by about 880% to nearly $59 billion, a monumental feat without a massive reduction in supply or an unprecedented surge in demand.
The Path Ahead for SHIB
Looking forward, the market is watching key technical levels and potential catalysts. For a meaningful rebound, SHIB needs to firmly break above resistance levels near $0.00001125 to avoid the risk of declining further. Some short-term forecasts for November 2025 suggest a potential rebound of around 15%, targeting the $0.00001139 level, provided the token can hold its current support base.
Historically, November has been a strong month for SHIB, with significant gains in previous years, which adds a note of cautious optimism. Ultimately, Shiba Inu’s near-term direction is heavily tied to Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim its 200-day SMA. A recovery in BTC would likely improve sentiment across the altcoin market, offering SHIB a better environment to attempt its own recovery.
