A Test of Resilience at Key Support
Ethereum enters November 2025 having faced significant selling pressure. In a notable move on November 7th, ETH broke below the key $3,400 support level, falling to $3,331. This decline confirmed a bearish technical breakdown in the short term, with the price establishing a pattern of lower highs since its last peak.
However, this drop was met with a surprising and significant response from large-scale investors. On-chain data reveals that during this decline, whales accumulated a staggering 394,682 ETH, worth approximately $1.37 billion, within the price range of $3,247 to $3,515. This massive accumulation by institutional players suggests they viewed the dip as a strategic buying opportunity, providing a strong counter-narrative to the bearish price action and indicating underlying long-term confidence.
The Bullish Case for a November Rebound
Several converging factors provide a cautiously optimistic outlook for Ethereum’s performance throughout November.
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Historical Seasonality: November has historically been a strong month for Ethereum. Data indicates that over the past eight years, ETH has averaged gains of nearly 7% in November, with a standout performance in 2024 of a 47.4% surge. This creates a positive seasonal expectation for the asset.
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Encouraging On-Chain Signals: Key on-chain metrics suggest selling pressure may be fading. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has declined, indicating that the incentive for investors to sell has reduced. Historically, this level has coincided with price rebounds. Furthermore, wallets holding 1,000 to 100,000 ETH collectively added 1.64 million ETH in October, demonstrating sustained conviction from large holders despite market weakness.
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A Constructive Technical Setup: From a technical analysis perspective, Ethereum’s chart shows a “hidden bullish divergence” on its 2-day chart. This pattern, where the price makes higher lows while the momentum indicator (RSI) makes lower lows, signals that selling pressure is weakening and often precedes a continuation of the broader uptrend.
Key Levels to Watch and the Strategic Outlook
For traders and investors, specific price levels will be crucial to watch in determining Ethereum’s next directional move.
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Resistance and Targets: The immediate and major resistance zone is located between $4,070 and $4,240 . A confirmed and sustained break above $4,240 could open the path for a move toward $4,500 or even $4,700 .
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Critical Support: On the downside, the $3,510 level is a crucial support floor. A break below this level would invalidate the short-term bullish bias. The recent low of $3,247, which triggered massive whale buying, now serves as the next critical line of defense.
The market is currently balancing short-term technical damage against strong fundamental accumulation. While the break of support is a clear bearish signal, the substantial whale buying and positive seasonal trends suggest the potential for a rebound is real. The path of least resistance will likely be determined by whether ETH can reclaim and hold above the $3,400 level it recently lost.
