Solana (SOL) finds itself at a critical technical juncture after a significant break below the $165 support level at the start of November 2025. This move has shifted market structure and sentiment, presenting a clear challenge for short-term traders and institutions with altcoin exposure.
A Precarious Technical Position
The breach of the $165 level is particularly significant as it was not just a psychological barrier but also the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, a key technical pivot that had provided stability. This failure to hold support triggered a wave of stop-loss and algorithmic selling, pushing SOL to test the next crucial support zone around $155.
Momentum indicators largely confirm the bearish near-term outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been recorded in the mid-30s, signaling weakening momentum and approaching oversold territory, though not yet at an extreme. Concurrently, the MACD histogram has turned negative, reinforcing the downward bias on the daily chart. With the price also trading below its 100-hour Simple Moving Average, the path of least resistance in the short term appears to be downward.
Glimmers of Hope Amid the Weakness
Despite the concerning technical breakdown, there are factors that suggest the situation may not be entirely bleak. A notable divergence is the behavior of long-term holders. On-chain data has revealed a significant spike in accumulation, with the 30-day Hodler Net Position Change surging by 102% since late July. This indicates that seasoned investors are viewing the price drop as a strategic buying opportunity rather than a reason to panic, often a sign that an asset may be nearing a local bottom.
Furthermore, the market has shown signs of seller exhaustion. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio for SOL recently hit a 30-day low, indicating that most investors who sold were doing so at a loss—a pattern that often marks capitulation phases near the end of a downtrend. The TD Sequential indicator has also flashed a buy signal on the daily chart, which often appears when a selling wave is nearing its end.
From a fundamental perspective, Solana has demonstrated resilience. Its spot ETFs have stood out with $137 million in inflows during a period when Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw massive outflows, highlighting continued institutional confidence specifically in Solana.
The Path Forward: Key Levels to Watch
For traders and risk managers, the immediate future hinges on a few key levels. The old $165 support has now turned into a primary resistance.
A sustained recovery above this level, and more importantly a break above the 7-day SMA near $175, would be the first technical signs of a potential recovery, potentially opening a path toward the $185-$190 zone.
On the downside, the $155 level is the critical support to defend. A daily close below this could expose Solana to a steeper decline toward $146.75, with a break of that level potentially accelerating selling toward the psychological $140 mark. The broader market context, particularly Bitcoin’s dominance and overall risk appetite, will remain a powerful force influencing SOL’s ability to stage an independent recovery.
In summary, while Solana’s technical structure has been damaged in the short term, the underlying conviction from long-term holders and unique institutional inflows provide a counter-narrative. The market is now poised to see if this accumulation can absorb the selling pressure and form a solid base for the next move.
