Dogecoin finds itself at a critical technical juncture after a significant drop, with its fate closely tied to Bitcoin’s recent struggles and its own weakening market structure. The memecoin fell 5.5% to $0.1730 between November 11 and 12, 2025, breaking below key support levels and confirming a short-term bearish trend.
This decline was part of a broader market pullback, as Bitcoin also fell during this period, trading in a range between $102,997 and $105,997 and putting pressure on the entire altcoin market. The downturn in DOGE was marked by a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows, with the price failing to overcome resistance at the $0.1789 level. Heavy selling volume, which at one point spiked to 94% above the daily average, confirmed the presence of strong institutional distribution and pushed the price through the critical $0.1720-$0.1719 support zone.
A Precarious Technical Position
The technical picture for Dogecoin has deteriorated noticeably. The breakdown from the $0.1720 support level has exposed lower price targets, with analysts highlighting the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $0.16 as a crucial “line in the sand” for the asset’s long-term trend. This level has provided support during six previous tests since the summer, making it a potentially pivotal area for buyers to defend.
Momentum indicators currently reflect bearish dominance. The hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 38, indicating neither oversold conditions nor capitulation, which leaves room for further downward movement. The market structure suggests that for any short-term bullish reversal to be considered, the price would need to achieve a sustained close above the $0.1650 resistance zone.
Underlying Market Pressures
Beyond the price charts, on-chain and derivatives data reveal underlying weaknesses. Recent market activity has been marked by extreme liquidation events. On November 6, DOGE registered a staggering 12,129% liquidation imbalance, where long positions worth $242,130 were liquidated compared to only $1,980 in short positions. Such a flush of leveraged longs can sometimes set the stage for a rebound, but it primarily indicates that over-optimistic bulls were caught off guard by the downturn.
Furthermore, the market has seen a significant reduction in holdings across different investor cohorts. Data shows a notable sell-off from whales, with addresses holding 10-100 million DOGE selling approximately $730 million since October 11. This substantial distribution from large holders has undoubtedly amplified the selling pressure on the asset.
The Path Ahead for Dogecoin
For traders and treasury managers, the immediate focus is on a few key factors. The most critical level to watch is the psychological $0.17 mark. A failure to hold here could trigger a further decline toward the $0.1650-$0.1600 range, where the significant 200-week EMA provides a final major support barrier.
While the strong bias toward short positions in the derivatives market favors continued declines, it also increases the probability of a sharp, short-lived “short squeeze” if positive news or a market-wide rebound triggers a rapid price increase. Ultimately, the medium-term direction for institutional portfolios will be determined by the flows into major crypto ETFs and whether the selling pressure from large Dogecoin holders begins to subside.
