Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Bet Tested as Market Value Dips Below Holdings
Metaplanet, the Tokyo-based investment firm known for its aggressive Bitcoin strategy, is facing a significant test of its business model. Despite reporting record quarterly revenue from its Bitcoin holdings, the company’s stock price has plummeted, at one point dragging its total market value below the value of the Bitcoin it holds.
This paradox highlights a growing divergence between the company’s operational performance and investor confidence. While Metaplanet’s Bitcoin treasury has grown substantially, market sentiment has turned, with shares falling as much as 70% from their peak in June. This has pressured the company’s crypto-centric treasury strategy and forced it to take defensive measures to reassure investors.
A Strategy Under Scrutiny
Metaplanet’s core strategy involves accumulating Bitcoin as a primary treasury asset, positioning itself as a listed vehicle for investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency. The company recently celebrated a major operational milestone, having exceeded its accumulation target by holding 30,823 BTC, making it the fourth-largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally.
The third quarter of 2025 saw the company’s Bitcoin-related revenue jump by 115.7% to ¥2.44 billion (approximately $16.56 million), leading it to double its full-year revenue forecast. President Simon Gerovich has emphasized the company’s strong fundamentals, noting it is virtually debt-free and has a clear path to issuing preferred shares.
Market Value Clashes with Asset Value
However, this operational success has not translated to the stock market. The key metric for such companies, the market-to-net-asset value (mNAV), which compares the company’s market value to its Bitcoin holdings, briefly fell below 1.0 in October. This meant the market was valuing the entire company at less than the worth of the Bitcoin on its balance sheet, an event that signaled a severe loss of investor appetite for the “crypto treasury” stock model.
Analysts suggest this reflects a broader cooling of enthusiasm for companies that primarily hold digital assets, as investors question the sustainability of paying a premium for a strategy that simply tracks Bitcoin’s price.
A Defensive Pivot and Long-Term Vision
In response to the falling share price, Metaplanet’s management has taken decisive action. The company announced an ambitious share buyback program, planning to repurchase up to 150 million of its own shares, which represents about 13% of its total capital. To fund this and future Bitcoin purchases, Metaplanet secured a $100 million loan using its massive Bitcoin holdings as collateral, stating this was a conservative move given the size of its treasury.
President Gerovich has remained steadfast, framing the current challenges as a typical growing pain for a disruptive company, even drawing parallels to Amazon’s struggles during the dot-com era. He reaffirmed the long-term goal of accumulating 210,000 BTC by 2027, betting that execution and fundamentals will eventually realign with market valuation.
