On November 18, 2025, the Bitcoin network quietly passed a profound milestone in its economic history, with over 19.95 million BTC mined, leaving less than 5% of its total supply left to be produced. This event marks a significant validation of Bitcoin’s core promise: a predictable and debasement-resistant monetary policy. While this achievement powerfully reinforces Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative, its immediate market impact is nuanced, serving more as a confirmation of a long-anticipated design feature than a direct price catalyst.
The Dawn of Tangible Scarcity
Reaching the 95% mined mark is less of a sudden shock and more of a gradual arrival at a pre-programmed destination. The real significance lies in the rapidly decelerating supply. The annual supply inflation rate has fallen below 1%, a level that makes Bitcoin’s issuance scarcer than gold in terms of new supply entering the market. This engineered scarcity is the cornerstone of its value proposition as a hedge against traditional finance, where money printing can devalue currencies.
However, the journey for the final 1.05 million Bitcoin will be a long one, stretching over approximately the next 115 years until the year 2140. This incredibly slow trickle of new coins, cut in half every four years through “halving” events, transforms the perception of Bitcoin from an asset of abundance to one of chronological scarcity. The next halving, expected in April 2028, will further compress this issuance.
Market Impact: Narrative Over Catalyst
While basic economics suggests that a dwindling new supply should boost prices, experts largely view this 95% milestone as a powerful narrative event rather than an immediate market mover. The supply schedule has been transparent from the start, and markets have had years to price in this reality. The event’s true power is in reinforcing investor confidence in Bitcoin’s unchangeable monetary policy.
Thomas Perfumo, a global economist at Kraken, notes that this milestone is a reminder of “Bitcoin’s resistance against debasement and intervention, operating as designed nearly 17 years later”. Jake Kennis, a senior analyst at Nansen, adds that while increased scarcity can psychologically support prices, the real story is that “Bitcoin’s supply schedule [is] working exactly as designed”. This predictability is invaluable for institutional adoption, as it provides the certainty needed for long-term strategic positioning.
The Road Ahead: Scarcity Meets Real-World Dynamics
Looking forward, the interaction between Bitcoin’s fixed supply and fluctuating demand will be the primary driver of value. Some analysts project a wide range of potential price outcomes, with some long-term models, such as one referenced by Hal Finney, even contemplating values in the millions of dollars should Bitcoin become a global payment system. However, these projections are highly speculative and depend on mass adoption.
In the nearer term, factors such as institutional ETF flows, global macroeconomic policy, and regulatory developments are likely to exert a much stronger influence on price than this supply milestone. Furthermore, the effective scarcity is intensified by the estimated 3-4 million BTC that are permanently lost, effectively removing up to 20% of the total supply from circulation and tightening real-world liquidity.
For miners, this milestone underscores a critical long-term shift. As block rewards continue to diminish, the industry’s economics will fundamentally change, forcing a transition from reliance on newly minted coins to dependence on transaction fees for revenue. This will pressure less efficient operators and likely spur further industry consolidation and innovation.
In conclusion, the 95% milestone is a powerful testament to Bitcoin’s maturity and resilience. It marks the network’s transition from a growth-phase asset to one with a fixed, predictable long-term scarcity. While not a short-term price trigger, it solidifies the foundational narrative that makes Bitcoin a unique asset in the global financial landscape. The next major test of this scarcity narrative will be the 2028 halving, which will once again put Bitcoin’s deflationary design to the test.
