Hedera’s HBAR is navigating a challenging period, having experienced a significant price correction. The token’s recent 25% decline reflects a combination of technical breakdowns and a cautious market sentiment, leaving traders watching key support levels for signs of its next directional move.
A Precarious Technical Position
HBAR’s market structure has shown clear signs of weakness. The price has fallen sharply, breaching the critical $0.162 support level and testing the $0.145 zone, which now serves as a final defensive line for the bulls. This breakdown is part of a larger “falling wedge” pattern, a technical formation that traders watch for potential reversals, though the current pressure on its lower boundary is a cause for concern.
Underlying momentum indicators reinforce this bearish picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50 and is approaching oversold territory, signaling that selling pressure remains dominant. Furthermore, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator that tracks the flow of money into and out of an asset, has been negative, suggesting a period of capital outflows and a lack of strong institutional accumulation until very recently. This alignment of broken support and weak indicators points to a vulnerable technical state.
The Broader Market Drag and a Glimmer of Hope
HBAR’s downturn is not occurring in a vacuum. The token has exhibited a high correlation with Bitcoin (0.76), meaning that Bitcoin’s own struggle to hold the $100,000 level has amplified selling pressure across the entire crypto market, dragging HBAR down with it. This high correlation makes HBAR particularly susceptible to broader market risk aversion.
Despite the gloomy backdrop, there are subtle signs that could hint at a potential stabilization. For the second time since October, a bullish divergence has appeared on the charts: while HBAR’s price made a lower low, the RSI momentum indicator formed a higher low. This technical signal suggests that selling pressure may be weakening even as the price continues to fall. Crucially, this recent divergence is accompanied by a tentative uptick in the CMF, hinting that larger holders might be starting to accumulate, a factor that was missing from previous failed recovery attempts.
Navigating the Path Ahead
The immediate future for HBAR hinges on its ability to hold or reclaim specific price thresholds. The situation remains fragile, and the risk of a deeper correction is present if the current support gives way.
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Critical Support: The $0.145 level is paramount. A sustained daily close below this support would break the current falling wedge pattern and could trigger a steeper decline, with analysts projecting potential downside targets around $0.133 or even $0.120.
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Signs of Recovery: For the bulls to regain control, HBAR must first reclaim $0.162 as support. A more convincing sign of a trend shift would be a breakout above $0.165, which could then open a path toward $0.186.
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Key Catalyst: The market is also watching for a confirmed, sustained move of the Chaikin Money Flow indicator above zero. This would provide stronger evidence that institutional money is flowing back into HBAR, offering the fundamental support needed for a durable recovery.
In summary, HBAR is at a technical crossroads. The convergence of broken support, negative momentum, and broader market weakness has created a challenging environment. While subtle signs of buyer interest are emerging, the token needs to demonstrably hold key levels to rebuild trader conviction and invalidate the current bearish outlook.
