Dogecoin finds itself at a critical juncture in late November 2025, caught between a stark technical breakdown and the first signs of potential accumulation in months. While the price has hit multi-month lows, a key on-chain metric has flashed a bullish signal for the first time in half a year, creating a tense environment for traders.
The Weight of the Downturn
Dogecoin’s market structure has undeniably weakened. The asset recently plunged, breaking below the critical support level at $0.155 and falling to the $0.149 range. This sell-off marked a 7.42% drop in a single 24-hour session, with trading volume jumping significantly, confirming strong institutional participation in the downturn.
The technical picture is bearish, with the price action confirming a breakdown from a multi-week descending triangle pattern. This breakdown traditionally projects a further decline toward the $0.145–$0.140 zone. The broader market context adds to the pressure, as Bitcoin’s recent “death cross” has cast a pall over the entire crypto market, making high-risk assets like memecoins particularly vulnerable to sustained selling pressure.
A Glimmer of Bullish Hope
Despite the negative price action, underlying data reveals a contrasting and potentially hopeful narrative. For the first time in six months, net flows on exchanges for DOGE have turned positive, meaning more coins are being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited. This pattern is widely interpreted as a sign of accumulation by longer-term holders moving assets into private custody, which can reduce immediate selling pressure.
This on-chain shift is backed by substantial whale activity. Data reveals that large wallets absorbed a staggering 4.72 billion DOGE (worth approximately $770 million) over a two-week period as the price dropped. This suggests that well-capitalized investors are viewing the current low prices as a buying opportunity. Furthermore, some momentum indicators like the RSI are showing bullish divergence, hinting that the bearish momentum may be exhausting itself even as price makes new lows.
Navigating the Path Ahead
For traders, Dogecoin’s immediate future hinges on a few key levels and catalysts. The most important near-term resistance to reclaim is $0.155. A sustained move above this level is essential to negate the recent breakdown and open a path toward $0.162–$0.165.
Conversely, the market is watching the $0.149–$0.150 level as immediate support. A failure to hold here could trigger a faster decline toward much lower demand zones around $0.115–$0.085. Adding a layer of potential volatility is a regulatory catalyst: a surprise approval of a spot Dogecoin ETF, with a key deadline imminent, could trigger an immediate and sharp repricing.
In summary, Dogecoin is a asset of conflicting signals. The technical breakdown and bearish market sentiment are very real, yet they are being challenged by the most significant on-chain accumulation data seen in months. The outcome of this tug-of-war will be decided by whether bullish flows and whale support can finally overpower the prevailing selling pressure.
