The cryptocurrency Polkadot (DOT) experienced a 4% drop on November 25, 2025, falling from $2.29 to $2.19. This correction occurred after the asset hit key resistance levels, reflecting a combination of technical pressure, institutional outflows and adoption issues. The downward move intensified when DOT failed to overcome the resistance zone between $2.80-$2.82.
Key Factors Behind the Pullback
The technical indicators showed clear signs of weakness. DOT’s failure to break the resistance at $2.80-$2.82 and a wider range of $2.73-$3.78 caused an imbalance in market dynamics. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood around 33.7, indicating the asset was approaching oversold conditions. Additionally, the MACD indicator showed a bearish bias, signaling a loss of buying momentum and a greater likelihood of continued downside.
Institutional flows played a crucial role in this correction. According to cited sources, “heavy institutional flows have been exiting Polkadot”, contributing to the breach of support levels and amplifying the downward movement. The combination of algorithmic orders at technical levels and divestments by institutional actors created a cascade effect on the price.
The supply structure represents a source of ongoing pressure. Scheduled token unlocks regularly increase circulation, generating an oversupply that pressures the price when demand is insufficient. A recent governance decision (Referendum 1710) set a total DOT cap at 2.1 billion, altering the previous uncapped model, but the process toward full circulation continues to generate selling pressure during the distribution (vesting) period.
On-chain activity shows worrying signs for valuation. In the first quarter of 2025, transaction activity fell 36.9% quarter-on-quarter, although core developer activity registered a slight increase. This contrast indicates the platform maintains technical interest but lacks the user and application traction necessary to sustain market demand.
The macroeconomic environment amplified Polkadot’s vulnerabilities. The reset of expectations about rate cuts and a higher-rate environment have reduced appetite for risk assets. It is estimated that in November the crypto market lost around $120 billion, creating a scenario that favors defensive moves and the reallocation of capital toward assets perceived as safer.
Future Outlook
Technical behavior suggests that Polkadot could face further pressure if it fails to recover key support levels. The combination of indicators such as the RSI near oversold territory and the MACD with a bearish bias could attract short-term speculative buyers, but the dominant trend remains bearish unless the mentioned resistances are overcome.
Developer activity represents one of the few positives, but real end-user adoption will be decisive to change the price dynamic. Analysts will closely watch whether the network can reverse the 36.9% drop in transaction activity recorded earlier in the year.
The decision to set a maximum cap of 2.1 billion tokens could eventually benefit valuation in the long term, but in the short term, scheduled unlocks continue to exert pressure on the price.
The 4% correction in Polkadot reflects a confluence of technical resistance, institutional outflows, oversupply from unlocks and user adoption below expectations. To regain momentum, the network needs to show a sustained increase in transaction activity and use cases that generate real demand. The next milestone will be to observe whether on-chain activity and application demand increase consistently or if the oversupply persists.
