Bitcoin was trading near $92,000 on Jan. 20, after prediction markets cut the odds of a January $100,000 print to 21%. Short-term market sentiment shifted sharply over the past week amid geopolitical tensions and a fresh risk‑off move.
Polymarket prices for a January $100,000 outcome fell to 21% on Jan. 19, down from 72% on Jan. 14, after BTC neared $97,300 earlier in the week, according to market-tracking data. The pullback accelerated as reports of President Trump’s threat to impose 10% tariffs on several European countries and the EU’s potential retaliatory measures — cited at up to €93 billion — triggered a broad risk‑off response across asset classes.
That correlation with equities has pushed some commentary toward the view that Bitcoin is “trading more like a risk asset than digital gold,” a characterization reflected in market coverage and trader discussion.
At the same time, institutional demand persisted: spot Bitcoin ETFs registered inflows of $1.42 billion last week, the largest weekly intake since early October 2025, according to flow data cited in trading reports.
Context, risk signals and what traders should watch
Analysts highlighted $92,000 as a critical support; a decisive breach would raise the probability of further downside toward lower structural levels. Resistance sits in the $96,000–$100,000 band, where prediction markets and options skews reflect concentrated positioning. Options pricing also implies a 26% market-implied probability for $150,000 by year‑end 2026, a figure that underlines how markets are balancing bullish structural narratives against elevated short-term macro risk.
One succinct assessment in the coverage summarized the shift: the January probability drop underscores the market’s sensitivity to macro headlines even as steady ETF inflows provide countervailing liquidity. Traders should note that liquidity compressed during low-volume windows can exacerbate moves and widen spreads, increasing execution risk for large treasury operations.
For treasuries and institutional allocators, the current setup demands active liquidity management: sizable spot ETF inflows signal continued long-term demand, but options-implied probabilities and prediction-market pricing warn that a short-term drawdown remains plausible. Hedging costs and funding for perpetuals should be monitored closely as funding rates and implied vols can change rapidly in a risk-off episode.
Investors are now turning their attention to month‑end flows and the June options window, which will test whether continued institutional ETF demand can offset macro-driven volatility and restore confidence in BTC’s path toward higher targets.
