The Bitcoin market in 2026 has officially entered a bear phase this Friday after losing the $90,000 price level. According to the onchain analysis firm CryptoQuant, investors have begun realizing net losses for the first time in two years, signaling a profound structural change in the trend that had previously dominated the digital asset.
This significant retreat, which places the price below key supports, suggests that the profit cycle has ended abruptly for many market participants. Nonetheless, the data reveals that realized gains have been decreasing since March, confirming that the previous bullish momentum was exhausted while the market assimilated new institutional selling pressures across the globe.
Furthermore, the drop in annual profits toward March 2022 levels evidences an alarming loss of macroeconomic traction within the ecosystem. Therefore, the transition toward a bearish sentiment seems to be consolidating, especially when net capital flows show a constant exit of liquidity toward centralized exchange platforms during the most recent international trading sessions.
Critical support levels and the strategic buyer congestion zone
On the other hand, technical analysis identifies a fundamental congestion zone between $80,000 and $84,000, where massive buy orders are currently concentrated from recent accumulation. This psychological barrier represents the last line of defense, since losing this technical level would trigger chain liquidations that could deepen the current retreat toward unforeseen annual lows for the asset.
In this way, the leading cryptocurrency now faces aggressive distribution, currently trading below the cost basis of 75% of the total supply. This implies that the risk of a further drop dominates the outlook, which is why the immediate recovery of $92,940 is indispensable to restore minimum confidence among retail traders who are currently feeling frightened.
Will the price manage to bounce before reaching the $58,000 target?
However, several analysts project that the price could descend as low as $58,000 if the negative trend persists during the coming months. It is also relevant to note that a bearish cross in the monthly MACD indicator has historically preceded major crashes in price, suggesting that the correction phase is just beginning for investors who are looking for a market bottom.
Additionally, the weakening of the derivatives market and the increase in transfers toward exchanges suggest a prolonged bearish trend. Because of this, the lack of liquidity on the buy side could force a further decline, keeping volatility at extreme levels while the market searches for a balance between available supply and decreasing demand.
Consequently, reclaiming the cost basis has become the number one priority for bulls attempting to save the current market cycle. Since selling pressure from miners has also increased, price stability at current supports remains uncertain, forcing participants to reevaluate their strategies for long-term investment in light of the new data and the prevailing market conditions.
Finally, the market’s gaze remains fixed on the weekly close, where the stability of the $84,000 support will be decisive for the future. Although the outlook is somber, history shows that these bear phases usually clear out excess leverage, allowing for a more solid accumulation base for the next cycle of global financial growth in the future.
