As the market digests whispers of a coordinated intervention to save the Japanese Yen, a historical Bitcoin price fractal indicates a potential 30% drawdown. This pattern, which mirrors past Yen shocks, often triggers an immediate liquidity crunch as investors unwind yen-denominated “carry trades” to cover rising debt costs.
According to technical analysis by Mikybull Crypto, these episodes typically follow a “dump then pump” trajectory, where an initial sell-off paves the way for a recovery exceeding 100%. If the current fractal plays out, Bitcoin could seek support in the $65,000–$70,000 range, offering a strategic accumulation zone for long-term holders.
Moreover, reports of the New York Fed conducting “rate checks” have placed the foreign exchange market on high alert for a joint US-Japan policy move. This institutional coordination, aimed at curbing yen weakness, often creates a volatile environment for digital assets as global liquidity is recalibrated across different sectors.
On-chain metrics signal a cooling phase before reaching a true bottom
On the other hand, the latest data from Alphractal suggests that a definitive market bottom has not yet been confirmed by on-chain fundamentals. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator remains above zero, implying that many investors still hold paper gains despite the recent price slide.
Historically, the most durable market bottoms are established only after the NUPL metric flips into negative territory, signaling a complete washout of speculative hands. Furthermore, the technology behind the network’s delta growth rate has turned negative, indicating that prices are slipping toward the aggregate cost basis of the entire network.
Will the current market correction create a generational buying opportunity?
Since the supply in profit has dropped to 62%, its lowest level in over a year, the market is effectively entering a period of cooling and consolidation. In this way, the current downward pressure is seen by some as a necessary reset, cleansing the system of excessive leverage before the next growth cycle.
Finally, while the short-term outlook remains cautious due to macroeconomic shifts, the overarching trend often rewards those who withstand these volatility spikes. It is expected that once the yen-induced turbulence settles, the Bitcoin price fractal will complete its historical cycle, potentially leading to the re-establishment of a robust and sustainable uptrend throughout 2026.
