Circle Internet Group (CRCL) shares rose about 4% after Mizuho Securities upgraded its rating from Underperform to Neutral and set a $77 price target. The upgrade followed an analyst view that Polymarket’s exclusive use of USD Coin (USDC) for settlement is creating a direct demand channel for Circle’s stablecoin.
Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkyns led the reassessment, citing Polymarket’s settlement architecture as a measurable source of transactional demand for USDC. The firm raised its price target to $77 and shifted to Neutral, and the market responded with a roughly 4% move in CRCL stock on the upgrade day.
Analysts projected Polymarket’s annualized trading volumes would reach $50 billion in 2026. That will be more than triple 2025 levels, and said that surge underpins a material uplift in USDC usage that flows through to Circle’s revenue model.
The buy-side reaction reflected a re‑pricing of Circle’s growth outlook, as Mizuho revised USDC circulation and revenue assumptions tied to Polymarket activity.
How Polymarket feeds USDC demand
Mizuho argued Polymarket draws a broader, event‑driven audience — from sports to macro forecasting — and that restored access for U.S. participants has expanded the pool of users settling exclusively in USDC. That structural relationship creates a predictable pipeline of on‑platform issuance and custody needs tied to trading volumes.
Mizuho maintained a Neutral stance while flagging significant headwinds: potential interest rate cuts that could compress reserve income, rising costs to distribute USDC, and intense competition from other stablecoin issuers and traditional financial entrants. Those factors temper the upside and explain why the bank stopped short of a Buy rating.
Investors are now focused on whether Polymarket’s volume trajectory in 2026 and the expected increases in USDC circulation will translate into sustained reserve income and higher reported revenue for Circle.
Those data points — platform volumes, circulation growth and upcoming company results — will be central to testing the analysts’ revised thesis and to how traders reweight CRCL versus other digital‑asset equities.
