Coinbase introduced prediction markets nationwide, allowing qualifying customers in the U. S. to engage in event-driven trading and broadening its offerings beyond traditional cryptocurrency spot and derivatives trading. This service is provided through a collaboration with an exchange regulated by the CFTC and accepts trades starting at one dollar in either USD or USDC.
Coinbase integrated Kalshi’s infrastructure to provide the contracts, with Kalshi operating as a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market. Under that arrangement Coinbase serves as the broker inside its app while Kalshi supplies the event-derivative contracts and cash settlement mechanics.
The company had run a limited-access phase starting in December and announced the nationwide rollout around the last days of january.
That regulatory setup sets these markets apart from many offshore or unregulated prediction platforms: outcomes are treated as cash-settled event contracts overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission rather than spot crypto or securities supervision.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong described prediction markets as “essential tools for truth-seeking” and said markets with “skin in the game” produce more reliable probability signals.
Regulation, details and neew liquidity for Coinbase
For market participants, the feature delivers several practical effects: it creates a new product for event-driven hedges, introduces a low-dollar entry point for retail interaction with macro and political risk, and gives Coinbase a regulated revenue stream that is not directly correlated with crypto volatility.
The contracts feature a minimum trade size of just $1 and are settled in either USD or USDC, which keeps friction low for both retail users and corporate participants looking to test the product. From a regulatory standpoint, the contracts are supplied by a market designated by the CFTC, while Coinbase operates as the broker directly within its app, providing a compliant and streamlined access point for users.
In terms of use cases, these contracts can be used to hedge exposure around key events such as Federal Reserve decisions, inflation data releases, election outcomes, and major sports or entertainment events. Coinbase also noted that the current contracts are sourced from Kalshi, but the roadmap includes integrating additional platforms in the coming months, potentially expanding market depth and product variety.
Investors and institutional users will watch liquidity and price discovery around the first major macro events after the rollout, and they will closely monitor whether additional contract providers are integrated in the coming months — both will determine whether prediction markets on a mainstream exchange deliver reliable hedging and actionable alternative data for treasuries and traders.
