The recent Solana recovery, which has allowed the asset to bounce 15% after hitting lows of $67, faces serious questions according to the latest on-chain data reported by Ananda Banerjee. This upward move occurs after a staggering 30% drop, generating doubts about price sustainability given the notable lack of real accumulation.
Despite the initial optimism sparked by the return toward the $78 zone, the technical structure suggests the market is still under considerable bearish pressure. The breakdown of the descending channel on February 4, marking a milestone of extreme volatility, precipitated a massive liquidation that only found support in levels of deep technical oversold conditions.
The role of short term investors in the current rebound
Analyzing the internal behavior of the network, it is observed that the current rebound is being driven primarily by wallets aged barely one week. This group of speculative holders increased their supply dominance from 4.49% to 6.08%, being a high risk factor for the stability of the aforementioned Solana recovery in the short term.
Conversely, institutional and long-term investors seem to be taking advantage of the rise to reduce their exposure to market risk. The Hodler net position change metric reflects a 17% drop, evidencing a clear lack of conviction among those who hold the asset for periods exceeding five months.
Will SOL overcome the 93 dollar resistance to confirm its trend?
For this upward move to stop being considered a “dead cat bounce,” the price must conquer and consolidate the $93 zone. Breaking this level requires an additional 19% momentum, which seems unlikely without a genuine entry of quality capital to displace momentary speculators from the cryptocurrency.
If the asset fails to reclaim that threshold, analysts warn of a potential drop toward the critical support of $67. A break below this point would open the door to $59, accentuating the deep corrective phase in which the project has been submerged during the most recent trading sessions.
Currently, the market remains expectant regarding the price interaction with upper resistances of $105 and $121. The fragility of the Solana recovery will persist as long as Glassnode data continues to show active distribution by large holders, who maintain a cautious stance against the prevailing volatility in the digital ecosystem.
