Solana (SOL) jumped about 12% overnight, but on-chain and technical signals showed that the move lacked durable support. Data indicated a sharp slowdown — and in some cases net selling — among long-term holders, a development that removed a key layer of price defence and increased the risk of cascading liquidations.
The immediate bounce unfolded against a backdrop of deteriorating on-chain positioning. HODLer Net Position Change showed accumulation had slowed materially and in places turned negative, signalling weaker conviction from long-term holders who normally provide stability during sell-offs. Short-term holders remained largely underwater, creating latent selling pressure if gains stalled.
Reported Solana-focused exchange-traded funds registered outflows of roughly $11.86 million, while futures open interest declined to about $5.32 billion, consistent with reduced institutional exposure and lower trading conviction.
The Money Flow Index approached oversold territory, but the supply-side withdrawal among long-term holders undercut the case for a lasting recovery.
Technical chart structure and immediate trading battleground
Technicals reinforced the fragile picture. SOL was trapped in a descending channel, forming lower highs and lower lows, and chartists identified a multi-timeframe head-and-shoulders pattern that pointed to a potential breakdown. The discussion in the sourced material set defensive and target levels: the $80–$96 range framed near-term resistance, $70 functioned as a major psychological support, and a sustained failure below those levels was projected to accelerate selling toward the $50 and even $30 bands.
The broader technical posture — including a down‑tilted monthly structure cited in the source material — framed the recent 12% bounce as corrective rather than trend‑reversing. Analysts referenced in the reporting noted that a failure to clear the stated resistance within one to two weeks would likely confirm the descending channel and set the stage for further declines.
For traders and treasuries the message was clear: the bounce reduced open losses in the short term but did not remove structural risk. Leverage will amplify outcomes on either side of the trade; if long-term holder selling persists or key supports break, forced deleveraging could deepen the move down.
Market participants will therefore focus on whether buying can push SOL above the $96 zone in the coming days. If it cannot, the combination of weakened HODLer accumulation, ETF outflows and the head-and-shoulders formation suggests downside pressure will remain dominant and could prompt larger-scale repositioning across spot, derivatives and institutional desks.
