Monero (XMR) experienced a significant price drop on February 13, as both technical analysis and trading data suggested an intensifying sell-off. Market signals indicate that XMR has decreased by over fifty percent since the middle of January, with investors now challenging a downward trend aiming for $150 and $135, should critical support levels be breached .
Monero’s price structure has turned decisively bearish, with XMR falling roughly 57%–65% from its mid-January highs. What began as a corrective pullback has evolved into a broader breakdown: a bear-flag formation has resolved to the downside, and the 200-day exponential moving average has flipped from support into overhead resistance, limiting the scope of relief rallies.
The February low near $276 now represents the immediate battleground. Holding that level could stabilize price action in the short term, but a decisive break would likely accelerate selling toward the $150 region, with technical projections extending closer to $135. Above the market, liquidation clusters around $340–$355 suggest that any sharp upside move could trigger leveraged reactions, though current positioning indicates diminished speculative appetite.
Monero under pressure as technical and flow signals align
Derivatives data point to a clear risk-off posture. Open interest has reportedly declined significantly, reducing excess leverage but also thinning liquidity across the tape. In such conditions, price moves can become more abrupt, particularly during stop cascades or short squeezes. Execution risk therefore rises for both tactical traders and larger allocators managing exposure.
Exchange flows remain net negative, implying that rebounds are being used to distribute rather than accumulate. The Money Flow Index reflects muted buying pressure, while social sentiment has deteriorated sharply—one flow analysis cited a 74% drop in positive sentiment since February 9—suggesting that behavioral momentum is working against a sustained recovery.
Taken together, the signals portray a market still in the process of unwinding excess optimism from January’s peak near $799. In the near term, volatility is likely to remain elevated. If $276 holds, consolidation could follow; if it fails, downside targets around $150 and $135 come into focus.
Until flows and sentiment show stabilization, rallies may continue to attract sellers seeking to reduce exposure rather than initiate new long positions.
