In recent days, a significant change has been observed in the correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), marking a major milestone since 2021.
According to data from Kaiko Research, the 60-day correlation has fallen below its historical average of 0.71.
This decline is no coincidence, coinciding with the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.
The last time this indicator fell to these levels was at the beginning of 2021, when Bitcoin began its price distribution phase after reaching a new all-time high.
In terms of correlation, the value of 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, while 0 indicates no correlation and -1 a perfect negative correlation.
The decline below 70% suggests that the prices of these assets are no longer moving as synchronized as in previous years.
This change in correlation comes amid the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, raising speculation about the possible approval of Ethereum ETFs by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Kaiko s notes that the divergence in price activity between BTC and ETH has been evident in recent months, with Bitcoin benefiting from speculation and enthusiasm around ETFs, while Ethereum saw a relatively slow rise.
Since the implementation of “The Merge” on Ethereum, the network has been surrounded by various narratives, from deflation and ultrasonic money to Layer 2 solutions, liquid staking derivatives and buybacks, and now ETFs, with “danksharding” in The horizon.
Despite the competition, it seems that the possible approval of Ethereum ETFs is the strongest today
Analyzing the trading trends of BTC in the period prior to the approval of its ETFs, it is observed that Bitcoin had a return of 100% in the last 365 days, surpassing 60% of ETH.
However, on the day of the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, BTC fell while ETH advanced, fueling speculation that ETH could be next in line.
ETH trading activity has also seen a significant rebound, with trading volumes on exchange centers (CEX) reaching highest levels since the FTX collapse.
Despite expectations of possible Ethereum ETFs this year, derivatives markets are showing no clear signs that traders are preparing for a rally.
While there is excitement surrounding Ethereum ETF filings, the data suggests that aggressive speculation has not yet begun.
ETH trading volume has increased, but derivatives markets show no signs that traders are positioning for a rally.
Ethereum, with its various narratives, will depend on factors beyond ETFs to generate market excitement.
