TL;DR
- Analyst PlanB predicts a rise in the price of Bitcoin after the recent halving.
- PlanB’s stock-to-flow (S2F) model has historically been accurate in predicting these increases.
- The five-month realized price has proven to be a strong support level in bull markets.
In a recent update of his stock-to-flow (S2F) model, renowned analyst PlanB has indicated that Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a phase that has historically coincided with major rallies.
According to PlanB, the S2F model, originally used for traditional commodities, has been adapted for Bitcoin and predicts the asset’s performance based on the idea that its price increases as it becomes scarcer.
PlanB argues that, following historical patterns, Bitcoin will experience a significant increase after the recent halving, similar to what happened in the previous cycles of 2012-2013, 2016-2017, and 2020.
The S2F model suggests that the first month after the halving marks the beginning of a new bullish cycle for Bitcoin.
According to PlanB, this initial phase has already begun, and we are likely to see an increase in the price of BTC, reinforced by the increasing scarcity that the halving causes.
PlanB mentions that this behavior has been a central element in his model, which has proven to be accurate in past cycles.
Additionally, PlanB highlights the importance of the realized price, a metric that records the value of all coins in a given period at the price of their last on-chain transaction.
This five-month realized price has historically been a strong support level during bull markets.
PlanB notes that in the 2020 bull market, the price of Bitcoin rebounded from this support line, a behavior similar to that observed in 2017.
Even in April 2024, Bitcoin showed a recovery from this support level, which reinforces the prediction of a bullish cycle.
At the time of writing this article, Bitcoin is trading at $69,750, with an increase of more than 2.2% in the last day, according to CoinMarketCap data.
This increase, although modest, could be an early indicator of the start of the rally predicted by the S2F model and supported by the five-month realized price.
Expectations for the Near Future of Bitcoin
PlanB’s prediction is based on the premise that historical patterns and support levels previously established will remain relevant in the current cycle.
The scarcity generated by the halving, along with the support of the realized price, suggests a bullish trend.
Investors should pay attention to these indicators, as they offer a solid perspective on the growth potential of Bitcoin in the coming months.
PlanB’s confidence in his S2F model is due to its historical accuracy.
In each of the previous cycles, the halving has been followed by substantial increases in the price of Bitcoin.
This pattern, according to PlanB, is a fundamental component of the nature of Bitcoin and its behavior in the market.
It is crucial to note that, although models and historical patterns offer guidance, the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile and subject to a variety of external factors.
However, the consistent support of the five-month realized price provides a solid foundation for PlanB’s predictions.
The combination of the S2F model and the support level of the realized price suggests that Bitcoin could be on the verge of a new significant rally.
Investors should consider these analyses when making decisions while observing how this potential bullish cycle unfolds in the cryptocurrency market.
