Signals and drivers
A combination of resurgent institutional demand and a shifting macroeconomic landscape is fueling a strong belief that a new crypto bull market is underway. This shift is critical for large investors and product managers, as it directly impacts trading liquidity and the overall stability of the market.
The optimism rests on a few key pillars. The sharp declines of the previous year are now viewed by many analysts as a necessary detox, flushing out excess leverage and creating a healthier foundation. This reset has paved the way for steady growth, with the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs acting as a primary catalyst. These funds have created a structural, steady demand for Bitcoin, helping to push its price to new heights and attracting a wave of institutional capital.
The confidence is palpable among experts. Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick, for instance, expects Bitcoin to reach $120,000 by mid-2025. This bullish sentiment is further supported by the macro environment, where expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and persistent government deficits are pushing investors toward scarce assets like Bitcoin.
The Next Phase of the Cycle
Looking ahead, the market is poised for several key developments. As institutional participation deepens through ETFs, we can expect more complex derivatives markets and a growing focus on altcoins. Many anticipate a rotation into smaller, riskier tokens, particularly those involved in the convergence of blockchain and Artificial Intelligence, a theme gaining significant traction.
The cycle, which many believe began with the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, could potentially extend into late 2026. The critical factors to watch will be the sustained pace of ETF inflows and the concrete policy decisions from the Federal Reserve. For everyone involved, the focus will be on navigating this evolving landscape—where easier trading conditions are balanced against the need for rigorous risk assessment as the market matures.
