A Fragile Rally: Analyzing AVNT’s Current Position
The recent approximate 25% climb in Avantis (AVNT) presents a complex picture for crypto treasuries and institutions. While the price action is positive on the surface, the foundation of this move appears fragile, characterized by mixed on-chain signals and a lack of strong, confirmed conviction from larger holders. The token’s history is marked by significant volatility; after an initial explosive surge of 576% following its launch in September 2025, it has experienced sharp corrections, including a 15.6% drop in mid-September and ongoing pressure that has tested the critical $1.00 to $1.13 support zone.
The current price hovers around $1.13, making the $1.00 level a crucial psychological and technical floor. A consistent break below this support could open the door for a deeper correction toward $0.80. On the other hand, reclaiming $1.20 could generate momentum for a retest of the $1.50 resistance level.
The Whale’s Tale: September Support vs. October Caution
The behavior of large holders, or “whales”, tells a story of shifting dynamics. In September, data revealed that mega-whale wallets actively absorbed selling pressure, accumulating roughly 50 million AVNT tokens during a 15.6% price slide. This created a wall of bids that successfully stabilized the market against profit-taking from airdrop recipients.
However, the flow in October has been notably different. Analysis suggests a theme of “volume without conviction”, with buying activity between $0.54 and $0.70 being light. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator that tracks money flow volume, remained below zero and hit a new low between October 16 and 23, signaling net capital outflows. While the CMF has edged up slightly since, the move is marginal and lacks the strength to confirm a reversal, leaving the rally on uncertain footing.
Looking Ahead: Key Factors for Institutional Monitoring
For treasury desks and institutional investors, a cautious and measured approach is prudent. The current patchy buying and weak money flow gauge increase the risk of the AVNT bounce breaking down. Until the CMF indicator prints and sustains a level above zero, the market remains vulnerable to a technical pullback that could accelerate if short-term holders exit their positions.
The fundamental outlook for Avantis offers a counterbalance to the technical concerns. The protocol operates as the largest decentralized perpetual exchange on Base, a leading Ethereum Layer-2 network. In August 2025, it processed $4.6 billion in volume, capturing 39% of all perpetual trading activity on Base. This provides a solid underlying utility, though steady user growth is still needed to fully justify the token’s valuation in the long term.
In summary, while AVNT’s recent performance is noteworthy, it currently resembles a short-term trade rather than the start of sustained accumulation. The prudent strategy is to wait for stronger confirmation, such as a sustained positive CMF, before assuming that whales and institutions are building long-term positions.
