Bakkt shifts toward institutional clients with a brokerage‑in‑a‑box strategy and Benchmark Buy coverage

Bakkt is repositioning itself to favor institutional clients by offering integrated custody, trading, onramps and payment products that incorporate stablecoins and artificial intelligence. Benchmark began coverage with a Buy recommendation and a $13 per share target, basing its thesis on potential recurring revenues if the company achieves scale and firm contracts.

Brokerage‑in‑a‑box model and strategic positioning

The company relies on a “brokerage‑in‑a‑box” model that combines custody, liquidity, trading and integration tools with payment solutions using stablecoins and AI, positioning Bakkt as a crypto infrastructure provider designed to make institutional adoption easier. Executive leadership is performing an operational transformation to shift the company toward providing custody, liquidity and integration that ease regulatory onramps and cross‑border payments through AI‑enabled features.

Benchmark coverage and valuation thesis

Benchmark initiated coverage with a Buy and a $13 target, arguing the thesis depends on generating recurring revenues from custody and trading fees plus integrated services if Bakkt reaches large scale. The valuation assumes sustained institutional acceptance, improved operating margins and that contracts and integrations become firm, which would enable more predictable revenue streams.

Market reaction, risks and capital considerations

Market reaction has been mixed: there is interest in the plan but announced equity issuances and public offerings have pressured the share price in the short term, creating dilution risk and volatility in trading volumes. Recent quarters showed significant revenues but small margins, and monetization requires large‑scale agreements, so capital management, dilution and fluctuating demand for custody and trading remain key factors to watch.

The relaunch positions Bakkt to become an institutional crypto infrastructure provider but its success hinges on operational execution, capital management and regulatory developments; if commercial acceptance grows while respecting privacy, interoperability and resistance to abusive controls, the strategy could deliver real value to the crypto ecosystem. Benchmark’s Buy and $13 target reflect optimism conditional on those operational and regulatory outcomes.