On November 18, 2025, Bitcoin extended its multi-week decline, breaking below the critical $90,000 support level and erasing all its gains for the year. This downward move has shaken market sentiment, pushing the Crypto Fear & Greed Index into “Extreme Fear” territory and marking a dramatic 30% retreat from its October peak above $126,000.
A Market Under Pressure
The current downturn stems from a combination of technical breakdowns and shifting macroeconomic winds. From a technical perspective, the market has been damaged by the formation of a “death cross”, where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day average, a pattern often associated with bearish sentiment. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s price has fallen below its 50-week moving average, a key long-term support level that has historically been a line in the sand for bull markets.
This technical weakness has been amplified by a massive unwind of leveraged positions. The sell-off triggered over $10 billion in liquidations across the crypto market in a single day, creating a vicious cycle of forced selling that accelerated the downward momentum. Compounding this, the once-reliable inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have stalled and reversed. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the growth in ETF holdings has slowed significantly, indicating a clear weakening of demand from U.S. investors.
The Macroeconomic Storm
The crypto market’s downturn is deeply intertwined with broader financial anxieties. A primary concern is the recalibration of expectations around U.S. Federal Reserve policy. The probability of a December interest rate cut has fallen below 50%, tightening financial conditions and spurring a classic “risk-off” environment where investors retreat from speculative assets.
This has had a profound impact on market behavior. Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index has surged to nearly 0.80, its highest level since 2022. This means Bitcoin is now moving in near lockstep with technology stocks, behaving more like a leveraged tech stock than an uncorrelated asset, and is therefore vulnerable to the same selling pressure.
Diverging Views on the Path Ahead
In this fragile environment, analysts and institutional players are offering contrasting interpretations of the downturn. Some, like Luke Lango of InvestorPlace, point to the breach of the 50-week moving average as a significant technical risk that has historically preceded deeper bear markets.
However, others see this not as a systemic collapse but as a market maturation. Louis LaValle, CEO of Frontier Investments, distinguishes the current state from a typical “crypto winter”, noting that the market is undergoing a structural transformation rather than a cycle of abandonment and vanished interest. Amplify ETF’s Kevin Kelly echoes this, suggesting that moments of “extreme fear” have historically presented strategic opportunities for long-term investors to build positions, albeit with careful risk management.
Looking ahead, the market’s direction will likely be determined by the evolution of key catalysts. The immediate focus for traders is on whether Bitcoin can defend the next layer of technical support, with some analysts watching for a potential test of the $85,000 to $88,000 zone. For any sustained recovery to take hold, the market needs to see a resurgence of institutional demand, likely through a stabilization of flows into Bitcoin ETFs and clearer signals from the Federal Reserve on the path for interest rates.
