Bitcoin is pinned near $108,000 this week, with forced sales of leveraged longs already hitting the tape. Holding above $117,000 is crucial to keep the uptrend alive, while failure could mean continued choppiness around the current level. Analyst Jina points to an outside target of $325,000 if momentum returns, with all eyes on ETF flows and the Fed’s next move.
Market Context and Technical Setup
The recent long liquidation resulted from excessive leverage and potential position pushing, creating short-term downward pressure as these positions unwind. The 200-day moving average has been rising since late October 2024, but the four-hour 50-period average is now sloping down. This clash between timeframes is setting the stage for sharp, two-way price swings.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold over 6% of the total supply. Since January 2024, cumulative inflows have surpassed $150 billion, effectively locking away coins that would otherwise be available on exchanges. One chartist cited by Jina sketches a scenario for a blow-off top spike to $325,000 by July 5, 2025. However, the base case remains a range centered on $108,000 unless price can convincingly break $117,000. Upcoming Federal Reserve decisions are key, as rate cuts typically lift risk assets while hikes can act as a drag.
Implications and Key Levels
Derivatives positioning is heavily focused on the $117,000 level, with open interest and the put-call ratio clustering stops. A decisive break in either direction could significantly accelerate the move.
Beyond ETFs, the shrinking free float of available coins ties the spot price more tightly to institutional flows and overall liquidity conditions.
Volatility risk is elevated thanks to the conflicting moving averages and the recent liquidation record. This raises the odds of rapid back-and-forth moves that often punish over-leveraged traders.
Resistance: $117,000
Pivot: $108,000
Extreme target: $325,000 (date: 5 Jul 2025)
Drivers: liquidations, ETF flows, Fed policy
The next decisive window pairs the price action around $117,000 with the upcoming Fed meeting. Jina concludes that the outcome will determine whether we see continued chop near $108,000 or a fresh leg up toward that ambitious six-figure target.
