Analysts and models describe October as a possible turning point for Bitcoin, suggesting a potential bottom near 50,000 USD. The analysis combines post-halving activity, on-chain information and economic elements that together could cause a large correction whose likelihood depends on how these elements interact.
Technical analysis and the post-halving cycle
The frame of reference remains the post-halving cycle, with many models projecting increased movement in the 12–18 months after the 2024 block reward reduction. Historical patterns show that these movements often appear as speculative tops followed by corrections driven by profit-taking and deleveraging, and while this is not a rule it warrants caution when placing leveraged long positions.
On-chain indicators and their interpretation
On-chain measures provide early signals but must be compared with market details to detect supply redistribution and cycle intensity. Metrics such as transaction volume, address activity, exchange balances and net flows from large holders, together with derived measures like MVRV or SOPR, reflect realized gains or losses and selling pressure, helping to gauge the intensity of the cycle without forecasting exact prices.
External risks and institutional support
Regulatory actions, counterparty failures and market shocks can rapidly invalidate favorable scenarios, while sustained institutional capital flows and regulated investment vehicles can create lasting support that cushions sharp drops. Events such as regulatory penalties, custody problems or global monetary rule changes can trigger widespread sell-offs, whereas persistent institutional demand can limit drawdowns.
Why 50,000 USD is considered a plausible floor
The 50,000 USD level is a plausible projection within deep price drops, corresponding to historical 60–75% declines from speculative tops, but it is not a certainty. Greater market maturity and additional sources of demand could change the ultimate low or reduce the depth of a drop, so this level should be seen as a theoretical floor rather than a guaranteed outcome.
Signals to monitor in the coming weeks
Sharp increases in exchange volumes, sustained changes in institutional inflows or outflows, high derivatives leverage and regulatory or counterparty events often precede strong directional moves and can act as catalysts. Monitoring exchange amounts, custodian flows and leverage levels helps anticipate liquidity shifts and the risk of cascade liquidations driven by derivatives exposures or sudden negative news.
Risk management and self-custody considerations
A significant correction requires professional risk management combined with strategies that preserve financial independence, such as diversification, scaled positions and clear asset protection rules for those prioritizing self-custody. Preparing contingency plans and maintaining disciplined position sizing can help keep capital safe in adverse scenarios while allowing participation in potential recoveries.
October may represent a turning point and 50,000 USD appears as a possible theoretical floor, but the actual outcome depends on many interacting factors. Monitoring on-chain signals, adjusting exposure and preparing contingency plans are the practical responses to navigate the next phase of the Bitcoin market.
