TL;DR
- In post-halving years, Bitcoin’s January declines are a historical trend that has consistently repeated in previous cycles.
- In 2021 and 2017, Bitcoin dropped up to 30% in January before reaching all-time highs later that same year, surprising the market.
- Analysts predict that Bitcoin could surpass $200,000 by the end of 2025, thanks to mass adoption and the approval of ETFs.
The beginning of 2025 has not been easy for Bitcoin. The most popular cryptocurrency has registered a 10% drop this month, falling from a high of $102,300 on January 7 to stabilizing around $94,000. However, experts note that this type of correction is not surprising in the years following a halving, and historical data supports this perspective.
Axel Bitblaze, a renowned cryptocurrency analyst, commented on his X account (formerly Twitter):
“Bitcoin’s January drops are common in post-halving years. We saw the same thing happen in 2017 and 2021.”
In both cases, the cryptocurrency experienced significant declines at the start of the year before recording spectacular rallies that defined the market cycle.
In January 2021, Bitcoin lost over 25%, dropping from $40,000 to just above $30,000. Despite this, its price surged 130% in the following months, reaching a record $69,000 in November of that same year. Similarly, in January 2017, Bitcoin fell 30% but closed the year with a 2,400% increase, reaching an all-time high of $20,000, setting new standards in the financial market.
What to expect in 2025?
Despite recent declines, many analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s future performance. “Crypto Rover”, a well-known YouTuber specializing in cryptocurrencies, highlighted that Bitcoin has shown similar drops in the early months of recent years, suggesting a predictable pattern. Meanwhile, “Stockmoney Lizards”, a financial analysis account, stated that the market has not yet reached its peak euphoria phase, leaving room for significant upward potential.
Moreover, the current context is favorable. Factors such as mass adoption by major institutions, support from pro-crypto governments, and the approval of ETFs in key markets could drive unprecedented growth. Projections indicate that Bitcoin could surpass $200,000 before the cycle ends in 2025, further strengthening its position as a global asset.
However, analysts also warn that if January corrections similar to those in previous cycles occur, the price could drop below $70,000 in the coming months. In any case, history suggests that these pullbacks could be just a pause before Bitcoin reaches new heights, reaffirming its reputation as the “digital gold” of the 21st century.
