TL;DR
Berkshire Hathaway holds $373 billion cash, more than double its 2023 level.
Buffett sees stocks not cheap after decline, prefers Treasury bills over equities.
Bitcoin’s positive stock correlation suggests it would fall during a downturn.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought roughly $17 billion in US Treasury bills at the latest government auction, a move that adds to a cash pile now exceeding $373 billion. The chairman revealed the purchase on CNBC this week.
The transaction fits a pattern. Berkshire ended 2025 with $373 billion in cash or cash equivalents. That figure is more than double the amount the firm held at the close of 2023. The buildup of cash reserves has historically preceded major stock market downturns for the Omaha-based company.
Berkshire does not view the recent decline in equities as a buying opportunity. The S&P 500 has dropped about 5.75% since its January record. Buffett told CNBC that stocks are not “substantially” cheaper after the pullback. He described the sell-off as “nothing” when compared to earlier downturns where markets fell more than 50%.
The firm ended 2025 with $373 billion in cash and equivalents, up from a record $334.2 billion a year earlier.
Historical data shows Buffett typically moves to cash before stock crashes. In 1998, he began reducing Berkshire’s stock exposure. Cash holdings reached $13.1 billion, or about 23% of total assets. By mid-2000, that figure had climbed to nearly $15 billion, roughly 25% of assets. Berkshire then started buying bargains as the dot-com bubble burst.
Buffett has called Bitcoin “rat poison” in the past
Bitcoin has traded in step with US equities for much of the period after 2020. The cryptocurrency often moves in the same direction as stocks, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq. As of Wednesday, the 20-week rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq was positive at 0.47. A reading of 1 would mean they move in perfect lockstep.
If Buffett’s risk-off position proves correct, Bitcoin would likely fall alongside stocks. Several factors are already putting pressure on the price. Quantum-security concerns have surfaced. War-driven inflation risks remain. Recent data shows nearly 50% odds of a US recession.
Berkshire’s portfolio decisions have also moved away from crypto-adjacent finance. In the first quarter of 2025, the firm fully exited its position in Nu Holdings, a crypto-friendly fintech company. Berkshire had built that stake in 2021 and 2022. The sale secured about $250 million in profits.
Buffett’s message remains consistent. He sees better value in cash and short-term government debt than in stocks at current prices. The recent equity pullback did not change that view.
For Berkshire, the Treasury bill purchase is a continuation of a strategy that has worked for decades. The firm holds cash when prices do not meet its threshold. It deploys capital when the numbers line up. The current cash balance suggests Buffett does not see those conditions in place today.
The S&P 500 has fallen about 5.75% since January. Buffett said that decline is “nothing” compared to past crashes where markets dropped more than 50%. That context helps explain the $17 billion Treasury purchase.
Bitcoin investors often point to the cryptocurrency’s fixed supply as a hedge against inflation and monetary expansion. But since 2020, Bitcoin’s price has moved more like a high-beta stock than a safe-haven asset. The positive correlation with the Nasdaq means that when stocks fall, Bitcoin tends to fall with them.
The 0.47 correlation coefficient is not a perfect lockstep, but it is enough to signal that Bitcoin is not acting as a hedge against equity market risk. For investors looking at Berkshire’s cash buildup as a signal, that correlation matters.
Buffett has been down this road before
The cash buildup in 1998 and 1999 looked like a missed opportunity while tech stocks kept climbing. Then the dot-com bubble burst. Berkshire had the money ready to buy when prices hit lows.
The current cash balance is larger in absolute terms and as a percentage of assets than it was in 1999. The firm now holds more than double the cash it held at the end of 2023.
The Treasury bill purchase this week is one piece of that larger strategy. Berkshire buys short-term government debt because it is liquid and carries no default risk. The yield on three-month Treasury bills has been above 5% for much of the past year, providing a return while the firm waits for better opportunities in stocks.
For Bitcoin, the question is whether the cryptocurrency can decouple from equities if a broader downturn arrives. The correlation data suggests it has not done so in the past four years. The quantum-security concerns and recession odds add further weight to the downside case.
Berkshire’s exit from Nu Holdings also shows how the firm views the crypto-finance space. It built a position, took profits, and moved on. The firm does not currently hold any major crypto-related investments.
Buffett’s approach is plain. He buys when prices offer a margin of safety. He holds cash when they do not. The $373 billion in cash and the $17 billion in new Treasury bills are a signal that he does not see that margin of safety in stocks right now.
