A noticeable shift is occurring within the Cardano (ADA) investor base, as data suggests that some of the network’s most loyal, long-term holders have begun selling at a loss. This trend introduces a new layer of complexity to ADA’s market dynamics, creating a tug-of-war between discouraged sellers and accumulating whales.
A Shift in Long-Term Holder Sentiment
Recent on-chain data indicates that investors who had held onto their ADA for over five months have started to liquidate their positions, many for the first time at a loss since early 2025. This movement is significant because it involves the network’s most patient participants, who are typically the last to sell during a downturn.
This change in behavior is often measured by metrics like the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator, which can highlight when coins are being sold at a price lower than when they were originally acquired. The decision by these typically steadfast holders to crystallize losses can exert additional downward pressure on the price and signal a weakening of long-term confidence.
Market Context and Technical Standing
This selling pressure from long-term holders occurs within a challenging technical landscape for Cardano. As of late October 2025, ADA has been trading in a range between approximately $0.62 and $0.86, struggling to find a decisive direction.
The broader market has also faced headwinds. A major correction in mid-October 2025, triggered by geopolitical tensions, saw ADA’s price unable to break past the $0.85 resistance level, leaving it vulnerable to further declines. Key technical indicators have reflected this weakness, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) often remaining below 50, indicating that buyers have not yet gained solid control of the market.
The Whale Counterbalance
Providing a counterweight to the selling pressure, large investors, often called “whales”, have been actively accumulating ADA. On-chain analytics reveal that wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA saw a notable increase in their collective balances, adding hundreds of millions of tokens worth over $140 million during recent market dips.
This substantial whale accumulation has helped absorb the coins being sold by other investors and has been instrumental in defending key support levels, particularly around $0.70 to $0.80. Their actions have likely prevented a steeper price decline, creating a floor under the market.
Navigating the Path Ahead
The current market dynamic sets up a critical juncture for Cardano. The immediate future of ADA’s price appears to hinge on whether the selling from long-term holders subsides or if the confidence of large accumulators is enough to spur a broader recovery.
For traders and investors, key technical levels are crucial to watch. A sustained break above the $0.86 resistance could be the signal needed to reignite bullish momentum. Conversely, a loss of the support around $0.62 might open the door for further declines.
Beyond short-term price action, the market is also watching for fundamental catalysts, such as the full implementation of the Chang hard fork for on-chain governance and the potential for a Cardano ETF, which could significantly influence sentiment and institutional demand.
