Cardano (ADA) is currently caught between conflicting signals. While some technical indicators suggest potential for a rebound, significant selling by large holders and waning on-chain activity are creating headwinds for a sustained price recovery.
Conflicting Signals from Whales and the Charts
The Cardano market is presenting a paradox. On one hand, a clear technical pattern suggests substantial upside potential. Analyst Ali Martinez points out that ADA is forming a bullish wedge on the 12-hour chart. A decisive break above the $0.90 resistance level could trigger a significant rally, with a price target set as high as $1.88—a potential 100% move from recent levels.
On the other hand, this technical optimism is being challenged by substantial selling from whale investors. Data from Santiment reveals that wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA have liquidated 350 million ADA (worth approximately $245 million) within a single week. This kind of distribution from large holders often creates downward pressure and raises questions about near-term market stability.
Weakening Network Activity and Sentiment
Compounding the pressure from whale sales, key on-chain metrics indicate a cooling in network engagement and trader confidence. Since October 11th, the number of unique active addresses on the Cardano network has fallen by 31%. This decline in daily active users suggests reduced market participation and waning trader interest, which can leave the price more vulnerable to losses.
Furthermore, the overall market sentiment surrounding ADA has turned negative. The weighted sentiment, which gauges the tone of discussions on social media and online platforms, has dropped and remains below zero, currently at -1.52. This prevalence of negative commentary over positive can discourage new buyers and may prompt existing holders to sell, creating a cycle of downward pressure.
Key Levels to Watch for ADA’s Next Move
For traders and treasury managers assessing liquidity and concentration risks, specific price levels are critical.
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Upside Breakout: The most important resistance to watch is $0.90. A confirmed break above this level could validate the bullish technical pattern and open a path toward $1.10 and higher.
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Critical Support: On the downside, $0.65 is a key support zone to monitor. A break below this level could lead to a steeper decline, with analysts identifying further potential supports at $0.6179 and even $0.4665 if selling pressure intensifies.
In the short term, the market’s direction will likely be determined by whether the influx of new demand can absorb the selling pressure from large wallets. For a sustained recovery, a stabilization in whale activity combined with a resurgence in on-chain engagement will be crucial.
