Prediction markets have moved beyond niche platforms and are now one of the most liquid sectors in the industry. Banking giant Citizens Financial Group reported that they have surpassed a projected annual revenue rate of $3 billion. And that’s not all; the bank projects that sector revenues could exceed $10 billion annually by 2030.
A bright future for prediction markets
Citizens based its estimate on platform fees, trading volumes, and adoption trends on major platforms. The bank cited approximately $10 billion in monthly volume on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket and noted that total trading volumes increased to $63.5 billion in 2025, up from $15.8 billion in 2024. The bank also highlighted that brokerage integrations have generated significant revenue: Robinhood’s Kalshi contracts generated over $100 million in annualized revenue after implementation.
Sports and entertainment still provide a large share of retail liquidity: sports contracts accounted for about 39% of Polymarket’s activity, according to the analysis. Citizens described the $10 billion target for 2030 as “a medium-term goal,” indicating that the bank anticipates greater growth potential if institutional participation increases.
However, platforms like Polymarket have managed to attract a broad range of users beyond traditional sports bettors. Political events, economic data, and crypto market trends are just some of the areas that have managed to attract a massive audience, and consequently, increase their revenue.
Why is growth accelerating, and where do the risks lie?
According to the Citizens report, the expansion is due to three structural trends: inflows of institutional capital, broader use cases for hedging the risk of discrete events, and improved platform interoperability with conventional financial tools. The report notes that event-based hedge funds, macroeconomic managers, and quantitative teams are increasingly using prediction markets to express or hedge specific outcomes without the cross-factor basis that can accompany traditional derivatives.
Regulatory uncertainty remains the main constraint. Citizens pointed to jurisdictional frictions between federal and state authorities in sports-related markets and noted that industry groups are pushing for clearer federal oversight through the CFTC. The bank compared the evolution of prediction markets to previous financial innovations (options, ETFs, and swaps), which also transitioned from niche markets to key markets after formalization and the involvement of market makers.
If volumes and institutional adoption continue on their current trajectory, prediction markets could become a persistent market segment by 2030, but achieving Citizens’ projection depends on regulatory clarity, market-making capacity, and integration into institutional workflows.
