Dogecoin is currently facing a significant test of its market resilience. After a weak bounce in early November, the pioneer meme coin is grappling with a sharp sell-off from its most steadfast investors and the emergence of a potent bearish technical pattern, pushing its price toward a critical support level.
A Weakening Foundation
The most concerning signal for Dogecoin comes from a dramatic shift in behavior from long-term holders. On-chain data reveals that on October 31, these investors switched from accumulation to distribution in just 24 hours. The Hodler Net Position Change metric flipped from a net inflow of 8.2 million DOGE to an outflow of 22 million DOGE, a stunning 367% reversal in behavior. This is significant because these holders have historically provided a buffer during sell-offs, and their loss of confidence puts Dogecoin’s key support zone at risk.
This crucial support cluster lies between $0.177 and $0.179, where approximately 3.78 billion DOGE were last accumulated. This area has acted as a strong defense for the price since early October. However, if selling from long-term holders continues, this support could thin out, potentially leading to a steeper decline toward the next significant support level near $0.14.
The Technical Picture Turns Bearish
The bearish on-chain narrative is being reinforced by technical analysis. Dogecoin’s price structure has formed what is known as a “death cross”. This occurs when a shorter-term exponential moving average (EMA) crosses below a longer-term one, signaling a potential deepening of a downtrend.
Initially, a death cross formed in late October when the 50-day EMA crossed below the 200-day EMA. Market technicians are now observing a second, potentially more significant, death cross forming as the 100-day EMA approaches a cross below the 200-day EMA. Because this involves longer-term averages, it is often interpreted as a sign of sustained weakness rather than just short-term volatility, and could accelerate the current downward momentum.
Key Levels for Traders to Watch
For traders and investors, the immediate future of DOGE hinges on a few key price levels. The asset is currently trading around $0.18, facing immediate resistance at $0.20 and $0.21. A daily close above $0.21—a level not touched since mid-October—is needed to invalidate the current bearish bias.
The most critical level to watch on the downside is the $0.17 floor, which has held strong since October 11. A decisive break below this support, fueled by continued selling and confirmed by the looming death cross, could trigger a drop toward $0.14, representing a decline of nearly 6% from current levels.
This period represents a crucial inflection point for Dogecoin, testing whether its market structure can withstand the combined pressure of eroding long-term holder confidence and strengthening technical headwinds.
