Dogecoin Breaks Down: A Technical Perspective
Dogecoin confirmed a bearish breakdown on November 4th and 5th, 2025, falling 5% to $0.16 and breaking through critical support levels that had held since early October. This decline was part of a steeper 8% plunge that saw the token drop to $0.1697 as whales sold off approximately $440 million in DOGE tokens, causing a decisive shift in market structure after it failed to maintain the psychological level of $0.18. The selling pressure intensified throughout the day, with trading volume spiking to 2.05 billion tokens—94% above the daily average—confirming the presence of conviction selling rather than temporary illiquidity.
The technical picture is defined by a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows, maintaining a distinct bearish momentum within a broader descending structure. Brief rebounds from oversold conditions have so far been corrective rather than directional, resembling a classic breakout-pause sequence typical of distribution cycles. Momentum indicators have turned negative on hourly timeframes, and the daily RSI has not yet recovered from levels below 40, underscoring the persistent selling pressure.
The Whale Exodus and Market-Wide Pressures
A primary driver behind this downturn has been the aggressive distribution by large holders, often referred to as “whales”. On-chain data reveals that addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE liquidated around 440 million tokens over a 72-hour period, marking one of the most significant medium-tier wallet sell-offs this quarter. This mass exodus by influential players has not only eroded price support but also damaged market confidence.
This whale-driven selling occurred against a backdrop of broader market uncertainty. Cautious comments from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates contributed to general weakness in the crypto sector, impacting major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum and creating a risk-off environment where speculative assets like Dogecoin are particularly vulnerable. The data shows a clear result of this pressure: daily on-chain records registered outflows of $22.27 million, and while futures volume rose, open interest decreased—evidence of widespread deleveraging rather than new speculative demand.
Navigating the Downturn: Key Levels for Traders
For traders and risk managers, the immediate future hinges on a few critical technical levels. The most crucial support zone to watch is between $0.1550 and $0.1500; a breakdown below this area could expose the price to further declines toward $0.14. Analysts suggest that the token’s recent pattern of 6-9% daily drops can sometimes precede brief technical bounces, but for any recovery to be sustainable, a daily close above $0.18–$0.185 is necessary to neutralize the current bearish momentum.
The immediate outlook remains cautious. The market is now watching for a sustained close above $0.1650 to potentially invalidate the current descending pattern and signal short-term relief . Until buyers can achieve this, the path of least resistance remains skewed to the downside, with the $0.1550–$0.1500 support zone being the key battleground that will determine the next significant move.
