On-chain Profitability, Large Holders and ETF Flows
The Ethereum market is currently in a notable state, with over 97% of addresses holding ETH in profit. This creates a environment ripe for potential profit-taking, which could test key price levels. While this presents opportunities, it also introduces vulnerability to short-term volatility. This situation is drawing close attention from institutional investors and compliance teams alike.
Supporting this backdrop, we see significant activity from large holders. For instance, one investor accumulated nearly 7,000 ETH at an average cost of $4,473, while another sits on an unrealized profit of $1.52 million from a purchase of 30,000 ETH. This concentration of gains highlights the potential for impactful selling pressure.
On the institutional side, demand appears strong. Ethereum ETFs saw substantial inflows of $4 billion in August 2025, notably overshadowing Bitcoin ETFs during the same period. BlackRock’s ETHA ETF, for example, has gathered $13.4 billion in net inflows, commanding a dominant market share in the U.S. However, these robust inflows do not make the market immune to movements by large individual wallets, underscoring the need for diligent oversight and traceability. Persistent network scalability issues and transaction costs also remain important structural factors to watch.
Technical Levels and Risk Indicators
From a technical perspective, key support levels to watch are situated at $4,450, $4,307, and the psychologically important $4,000 level. On the upside, resistance is found around $4,750; a decisive break above this level could open a path toward $5,430. A wave of profit-taking could easily push the price down to test these support zones.
A key risk indicator flashing a note of caution is the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), which currently stands at 0.36. This metric suggests that the market sentiment is in a state that has historically often preceded a correction, aligning with the risk of short-term volatility spikes.
In the coming weeks, market participants should closely monitor ETF flow data and the movement of large wallets. A break above $4,750 could signal a move toward higher targets, while intensified selling could test the lower supports. Practically speaking, stakeholders should prepare for elevated volatility, ensure robust liquidity management, and keep a close eye on the interplay between institutional inflows and the actions of large holders, as this dynamic will likely define Ethereum’s near-term trajectory.
