Despite an unprecedented period of global monetary easing from central banks, Bitcoin’s price has remained surprisingly flat, trading around $90,752 as of November 28, 2025. This disconnect between a traditionally bullish macro environment and BTC’s stagnant performance is a key puzzle for traders, shaped by a clash between long-term liquidity tailwinds and powerful short-term headwinds.
The Great Liquidity Disconnect
Global central banks are in the midst of their most aggressive easing cycle in 35 years. With over 90% of central banks either cutting rates or holding them steady, there have been 316 rate cuts over two years, even surpassing the rate cuts seen during the 2008-2010 financial crisis. Historically, such massive liquidity injections have been a powerful catalyst for risk assets like Bitcoin, with past data showing a correlation as high as 0.94 between Bitcoin’s price and the global M2 money supply.
However, this relationship has decoupled since mid-2025. Analysts note that Bitcoin has often lagged major increases in global liquidity by 60 to 70 days, suggesting that the current monetary expansion could be setting the stage for a delayed rally rather than having an immediate impact. Furthermore, the market’s structure is changing; Bitcoin’s recent 36% drawdown from its October high has been accompanied by contained volatility, a sign that Wall Street’s growing institutional influence is tempering the wild swings once driven by retail speculation.
Short-Term Frictions Overpower Long-Term Signals
While the macro backdrop suggests a bull market, several immediate factors are applying downward pressure. A significant headwind has been the substantial outflow of capital from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which has removed a key source of institutional buying pressure and overshadowed the positive global liquidity narrative.
Concurrently, market sentiment has been cautious. Tools like the Fear and Greed Index are designed to measure the market’s emotional state, and prevailing “fear” can lead to reduced risk appetite and leverage. This cautiousness is also reflected in technical analysis, with patterns like a confirmed “death cross” often interpreted by traders as a bearish medium-term signal, further dampening enthusiasm.
A Patient Opportunity
This unusual situation presents a complex picture. The fundamental long-case for Bitcoin remains strong, underpinned by a wave of global liquidity that historically fuels asset prices. The current price stagnation, therefore, could be viewed as a potential buying opportunity while Bitcoin appears disconnected from these macro tailwinds.
The key for market participants is patience and perspective. The prevailing advice is to monitor for a resurgence in institutional ETF inflows and a shift in market sentiment. Once these short-term frictions subside, the vast pool of global liquidity is expected to re-establish its influence, potentially powering Bitcoin’s next significant move.
