A Clear Technical Breakdown
Throughout October and November 2025, HBAR’s price action has been dominated by a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a bearish market structure. A significant downturn occurred on November 17, when the price fell 2.5% to $0.1480, decisively breaking a critical support level that had previously held. This breakdown triggered a surge in selling pressure, with trading volume spiking 180% above the session’s average during the most intense selling phase.
This was not an isolated event. The price had already faced rejection at key resistance levels near $0.1940 and failed to hold its consolidation range between $0.1840 and $0.1870. This pattern of lower highs, combined with the breach of major support, validated a bearish technical outlook and opened the path for further declines toward the $0.1457 support level.
Overwhelming Bearish Sentiment and Momentum
The technical breakdown was fueled by and reflected in overwhelmingly negative market sentiment and momentum indicators.
The broader crypto market’s “Extreme Fear” sentiment, reflected in a Fear & Greed Index score as low as 21, certainly contributed to the pressure on HBAR. More specifically, on-chain and derivatives data revealed a coordinated flight of institutional capital. Key metrics showed synchronized declines in both price and open interest, indicating that leveraged traders were closing positions rather than opening new ones—a classic sign of waning speculative interest and distribution.
This institutional selling was a consistent theme. As far back as October 10, HBAR faced a coordinated sell-off by institutional traders, with volume surging to 262.49 million in a single hour—six times the session average—erasing earlier gains and breaking multiple support zones.
Fundamentals vs. Market Reality
A compelling contradiction in HBAR’s recent performance is the disconnect between its weakening price and continued positive fundamental developments.
On one hand, the Hedera network has achieved significant milestones. The launch of the first HBAR ETF on Nasdaq in late October acted as a powerful catalyst, triggering a 16% single-day rally and boosting the token’s market capitalization to around $8.2 billion. Furthermore, the ecosystem has seen explosive growth in USDC stablecoin adoption, with weekly growth accelerating by over 93%, enhancing liquidity for DeFi and payments.
Despite these strong fundamentals, the positive impact on price has been short-lived. The “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic appears to have taken hold, with technical factors and broader market weakness overwhelming the positive catalysts. The planned integration of Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) to expand Hedera’s DeFi capabilities was noted as a source of optimism, but it was ultimately unable to counter the dominant bearish technical pressure.
Navigating the Path Ahead
For traders and investors, the immediate future hinges on a few key technical levels. The current outlook remains cautious, with the price consolidating between support around $0.17 and resistance near $0.20.
A sustained recovery would require HBAR to close firmly above the $0.19 to $0.20 resistance zone. Such a move could signal a shift in momentum and open the door for a test of higher prices. Conversely, a failure to hold the $0.1457 support level could trigger a deeper correction, with the next significant target at $0.16 being a critical milestone to watch for any sign of stabilization.
