Hedera’s HBAR finds itself at a critical juncture in late November 2025, navigating a sharp downturn that has left traders weighing the risk of further decline against the potential for a explosive short squeeze. The asset’s recent 8% drop has intensified a prolonged bearish trend, with its price hovering around $0.134, a level that now serves as a crucial line in the sand for its near-term future.
A Market Gripped by Fear and Technical Weakness
The current sentiment surrounding HBAR is undeniably bearish, reflected in both market indicators and on-chain data. The Hedera Fear and Greed Index sits firmly in “Fear” territory at a reading of 28, indicating widespread investor anxiety. This pessimism is rooted in clear technical deterioration. The price has broken below a key descending trendline for the On-Balance Volume (OBV), an indicator that measures buying and selling pressure. This breakdown suggests a concerning lack of volume support for any attempted recovery, signaling that the momentum remains weak beneath the surface.
This technical fragility is compounded by a significant exodus of capital. Metrics like the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) have plunged to a three-month low, revealing that liquidity is leaving the asset at an accelerated pace as investors retract their support. The price action itself confirms this, as HBAR has breached multiple support levels and now trades below all its major daily moving averages, a classic signature of a sustained downtrend.
The Catalyst for a Potential Rebound
Despite the gloomy backdrop, a potentially volatile catalyst is brewing in the derivatives market. Data from liquidation maps reveals a dramatic imbalance: short positions outweigh long positions by a staggering 475%. This means there are $15.32 million in leveraged bets that the price will fall, compared to just $2.66 million in bets that it will rise. While this extreme bearish tilt keeps immediate pressure on the price, it also creates a tinderbox scenario. If HBAR’s price were to experience even a modest upward move, it could force these short sellers to buy back HBAR to close their positions. This covering-buying can create a feedback loop, fueling a rapid and sharp price increase known as a short squeeze.
Key Levels to Watch
For traders and investors, navigating this environment requires a clear-eyed view of the decisive price levels that could dictate HBAR’s next major move.
On the downside, the immediate support to watch is $0.134. A decisive and sustained break below this level could trigger the next leg down, with the next significant support targets located at $0.129 and, in a more extreme scenario, as low as $0.087.
On the upside, the first major hurdle for bulls is to achieve a daily close above $0.144. This would be the first signal that selling pressure is being absorbed. However, a more significant confirmation of a trend reversal would be a rally that pushes the price above $0.164. Such a move would likely trigger the liquidation of a substantial portion of the outstanding short positions, potentially unlocking a powerful short squeeze and opening the path toward higher resistance zones.
In essence, HBAR is caught between a tough technical reality and a latent, derivatives-fueled potential for a sharp rebound. While the path of least resistance in the short term appears skewed to the downside, the massive short imbalance means that the market is uniquely vulnerable to a sudden and powerful upward move, making risk management more critical than ever.
