Hedera’s native token HBAR is exposed to an estimated 30% price correction after its Total Value Locked (TVL) collapsed by more than 50% since September, falling from about $122.5M to roughly $56M — a drop of some $66.5M.
Data shows Hedera’s TVL has halved since September, a direct measure of reduced locked capital and activity on the network. That contraction reduces on-chain liquidity and raises execution risk for larger orders, which in turn limits the token’s ability to absorb sell pressure and mount rallies.
Anyone buying HBAR should be ready for long periods of stagnation and deep drawdowns, data cited. Underscoring the asset’s historical volatility and the risk profile for allocators. The combination of a thin market float and shrinking TVL increases HBAR’s sensitivity to flow imbalances.
The weakness is compounded by minimal institutional ETF inflows in recent weeks and technical signs of persistent selling. Together, those factors have left HBAR vulnerable to continued downward momentum unless liquidity metrics or external capital flows improve.
Technical setup, ETF inactivity and derivatives dynamics
Technicals show a persistent falling channel and a deteriorating On-Balance Volume (OBV), indicating distribution and a lack of institutional accumulation. Trading volumes have been muted, which magnifies volatility and the potential impact of directional orders.
ETFs tied to HBAR have not recorded significant inflows in the latest reporting period, removing a potential source of steady, institutional demand. At the same time, the derivatives market creates two-way risk: a heavy short skew could enable a rapid short squeeze if key resistance is breached, but current indicators suggest continued downside unless those positions unwind in favor of buyers.
For traders and crypto treasuries, the operational implication is clear: execution strategies should account for thinner on-chain liquidity and wider slippage. Institutional allocations should consider the heightened drawdown profile and the potential need for longer holding periods to realize positive outcomes.
Looking ahead, recovery catalysts cited include renewed TVL growth driven by DeFi activity and enterprise-led tokenization use cases, plus planned mainnet upgrades (v0.68 and v0.69) aimed at smart contract automation and network management. Without a measurable turnaround in those metrics or a meaningful return of ETF flows, the present configuration leaves HBAR exposed to the downside scenario outlined.
