HBAR sits at the center of a tug-of-war between pronounced technical downside and nascent dip buying, trading near $0.118 as of 2025-12-29. The token’s immediate fate hinges on whether it can hold short-term support above $0.110 and reclaim resistance levels that would invalidate a bearish continuation pattern.
Technical studies point to a continuation setup that threatens a steep drop if key thresholds fail. Analysts identified a pole-and-flag formation with a crucial neckline around $0.108; a decisive breach could project a roughly 31% decline toward $0.079 and, in a further extension, $0.068. HBAR was down about 18% for the month in late December, and on-balance volume (OBV) hit a nine-month low, indicating dominant sell-side flow.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) showed a hidden bearish divergence on the 12-hour chart in mid-November and a weakening trendline, undermining a $0.141 support zone.
Exchange outflows have collapsed since early December — down by more than 92% — reducing the depth of dip-buying liquidity and amplifying downside risk after a confirmed 4‑hour bear‑flag breakdown that implied a potential ~28% slide toward the $0.068 area.
Institutional appetite offers little immediate counterweight. ETF flows into the Canary HBAR product recorded zero inflows on 2025-12-22, a sign of limited demand from traditional finance channels.
Hedera HBAR derivatives positioning
Derivatives and on‑chain positioning paint a mixed picture. Smart‑money addresses maintained a net short stance over the prior 30 days, but that short exposure has contracted, while consistent futures traders have begun to open long positions. The top 100 addresses and large wallets remain net long despite reducing overall exposure, providing a modest support layer that could blunt fire‑sale dynamics.
Between 2025-12-09 and 2025-12-29, the MFI produced a bullish divergence as demand indicators rose while price drifted lower, suggesting that selective buyers were stepping in at perceived support. That behavior, coupled with a weak follow‑through after an earlier breakdown that left price flat for 24 hours, raises the possibility of a short‑squeeze or “bear trap” if sellers are forced to cover.
Strategists cite specific hurdle points for a meaningful reversal: regaining $0.120 and then $0.126 would weaken the bearish flag; surpassing $0.139 would likely invalidate the pattern and shift bias toward neutral or bullish.
HBAR remains balanced between a material breakdown risk and tentative recovery signs; prevailing technicals and evaporating ETF demand favor the bears, while contracting short exposure and whale net longs offer a path to stabilization. Traders and treasury managers should watch two immediate milestones: a sustained reclaim of $0.120–$0.126 to repair structure, or a failure of $0.110–$0.108 that would open targets near $0.079–$0.068.
