A “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” Event Unfolds
The recent price action for HBAR is a textbook example of a “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic. The token had rallied significantly in the lead-up to the debut of the Canary Capital HBAR ETF (ticker: HBR) on Nasdaq in late October. The launch itself was successful, attracting $8 million in inflows on its first day and signaling robust institutional and retail demand for regulated Hedera exposure.
However, this positive catalyst was short-lived. After an initial jump, the price quickly reversed course as short-term traders and investors began taking profits. This selling pressure intensified, leading to a 5% drop on November 3rd that pushed the price below the critical $0.1900 support level. This breakdown was a decisive shift in near-term sentiment, with the former support level now acting as a strong resistance barrier.
Technical Breakdown and Institutional Sentiment
The decline was not just a mild pullback but a technically significant event accompanied by a surge in selling volume. Trading activity spiked 86% above the daily average during the sell-off, a clear sign of position exits rather than temporary illiquidity . This suggests a wave of traders and institutions were closing out their positions.
On-chain and technical indicators reinforce a cautious outlook. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks the flow of money in and out of an asset, has dropped below zero to -0.09. This indicates consistent outflows of large capital from HBAR, showing that institutional investors and big holders have been distributing their holdings. Furthermore, a bearish pattern of lower highs on the daily chart points to underlying exhaustion among buyers.
The Road Ahead for HBAR
For traders and treasury managers, the immediate focus is on a few key technical levels. The current support zone is now between $0.1815 and $0.1835. A sustained break below this, particularly a daily close under $0.168, could signal a further decline and invalidate any short-term rebound potential.
On the other hand, for a recovery to gain traction, HBAR needs to reconquer the $0.1850–$0.1860 resistance cluster. A more decisive move would be a clean close above $0.204, which could trigger a brief rebound toward $0.219. While the short-term charts show some signs of a potential relief bounce, the broader structure will require significant volume and positive market sentiment to stage a full recovery.
