Recent market data and ecosystem developments show Hedera (HBAR) is in a critical technical consolidation phase. The price action is caught between building bullish momentum and a significant resistance wall that has so far contained the uptrend.
A Battle at a Key Technical Juncture
Your read of the chart is confirmed by recent price action. HBAR indeed experienced a notable jump of over 2% on October 13th, breaking through a resistance zone between $0.190 and $0.191, a move that was supported by a significant spike in trading volume indicating strong institutional interest. This pushed the price to around $0.191, marking a roughly 9% rise from a low near $0.17 in the preceding days.
However, the broader challenge remains. The asset has been wrestling with a multi-month downtrend, and while it has established support around $0.230 the $0.241 level has proven to be a stubborn resistance point. A decisive daily close above the $0.25-$0.26 zone is critical to signal a genuine trend reversal and invalidate the prevailing bearish structure. Key technical indicators offer a mixed but hopeful picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has held above the neutral 50 level, suggesting underlying bullish momentum is still intact. Furthermore, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures money flow into an asset, has shown a significant rise to a two-month high. This indicates growing buying pressure and could be a precursor to a more sustained upward move if it continues.
Ecosystem Growth vs. Market Mechanics
While the technicals paint one picture, on-chain data and ecosystem developments add important layers. Data from early October revealed that HBAR had a long liquidation rate exceeding 85%. This creates a challenging environment for any immediate price surge, as it suggests that any upward move will face strong selling pressure from leveraged positions being forced to close.
Despite this technical headwind, the Hedera ecosystem continues to demonstrate strong fundamental growth. The network’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem is thriving, with projects like SaucerSwap, a leading decentralized exchange, securing a Total Value Locked (TVL) of $56.4 million, and Bonzo Finance, a lending protocol, holding a TVL of $31.1 million as of May 2025. Furthermore, Hedera has achieved significant institutional milestones this year. A major development was the listing of HBAR on Robinhood in July 2025, greatly expanding retail access to the token. The network is also involved in pioneering projects like Project Acacia, a wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot with the Reserve Bank of Australia, highlighting its capability in handling regulated financial operations.
The Path Ahead for HBAR
For traders and investors, the immediate future hinges on a few key factors. The primary event to watch is a clean daily close above the $0.25-$0.26 resistance zone. Such a breakout, especially if accompanied by strong volume, could trigger a shift in market structure, restore confidence, and attract more buyers.
Until that happens, the advance from recent lows is best treated as a bounce within a broader downtrend. Should the price fail to break out and instead fall below the crucial support at $0.230, it could open the door for a deeper correction toward $0.219 or even $0.176, which aligns with the 200-day simple moving average you mentioned.
The combination of positive on-chain money flow, a resilient RSI, and solid ecosystem growth provides a foundation for a bullish case. However, the high rate of long liquidations and the strong technical resistance mean that the path higher is likely to be a hard-fought battle.
