HBAR recently found a firm footing, bouncing from a support band between $0.217 and $0.218 and climbing in a steady rally that has reshaped liquidity and derivatives positioning for active traders and institutions. The rebound was accompanied by a significant rise in trading volume, a sign that institutional buyers likely stepped in at this key level. This price action formed a clear range for the session, with the low at $0.217 and resistance encountered near $0.225.
This institutional interest occurs amidst mixed signals on the network. On one hand, the number of large wallets holding over 10M HBAR has seen substantial growth since August 2024. On the other, the stablecoin supply on the Hedera network has decreased noticeably, a drain that can remove bid depth and exert downward pressure on price.
Technical Landscape and Momentum Signals
From a technical perspective, the market is sending conflicting signals. The price breakout from a short-term diagonal resistance and the reclaiming of the $0.235 support level are viewed by some analysts as signs that a correction may be over, with momentum indicators turning positive. However, a bearish flag remains on shorter timeframes, with the MACD line still lingering below its signal line, indicating lingering negative momentum.
The reaction at key resistance levels will be crucial in determining the next major move. The $0.26 level is widely seen as a significant threshold; a daily close above it could open the path toward the $0.28 to $0.30 resistance zone. Furthermore, heavy short interest in futures markets raises the possibility of a short squeeze if the price makes a rapid move upward, potentially accelerating gains.
Fundamental Drivers and Market Sentiment
Beyond the charts, HBAR’s trajectory is being influenced by several fundamental factors. Growing institutional credibility, evidenced by Grayscale including HBAR in its fund and the review of spot ETF applications, provides a bullish long-term narrative. However, overall market sentiment remains cautious, weighed down by factors such as the notable outflow of stablecoin liquidity from the ecosystem.
The ongoing development of Hedera’s ecosystem, including its focus on tokenization and AI, continues to build a case for its utility. Yet, in the near term, price action remains heavily correlated with broader market movements, particularly Bitcoin’s performance.
The immediate future for HBAR hinges on the market’s ability to defend the recently established support zone. A sustained break above $0.26 would signal a stronger bullish shift and likely attract more momentum-driven buying. Conversely, a failure to hold the $0.217-$0.218 level could see the price retreat toward the next significant support near $0.196. Traders and institutions are now watching for a clear signal from either a decisive breakout above $0.26 or a successful retest of the key support band.
