On October 24, 2025, Hedera (HBAR) confirmed a significant bearish technical signal known as a “Death Cross”, casting doubt on the likelihood of an immediate rally to the $0.20 level and prompting a cautious reassessment of its short-term trajectory.
A Bearish Signal Emerges
The Death Cross pattern, a classic technical indicator, materialized as HBAR’s 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed below its 200-day EMA. This event is significant as it marks a potential shift in market structure, often interpreted by analysts as a sign of accelerating bearish momentum. It effectively concludes a three-month period of bullish momentum that was previously supported by a “Golden Cross”.
This technical development comes at a time when the market is showing signs of fragility. Following a market crash earlier in the month that triggered nearly $200 million in liquidations, the Open Interest (OI) for HBAR has stabilized at a modest $129 million. The lack of growth in OI suggests that traders are hesitant to re-enter leveraged positions, reflecting a broader sense of caution and contributing to reduced speculative activity.
Navigating the Price Crossroads
In this new technical environment, key price levels become critical for forecasting HBAR’s next move. The token is currently trading around $0.170, fluctuating within a narrow range between $0.178 and $0.162.
The path forward presents two primary scenarios. If bearish pressure intensifies and the price drops below the $0.162 support level, it could trigger a deeper decline toward $0.154 or even $0.145, confirming the downside pressure warned of by the Death Cross. Conversely, for the bulls to regain control, HBAR would need to break past the $0.178 resistance. A sustained rally from that level could potentially push the token toward $0.200, which would represent a 17.6% rise and invalidate the current bearish outlook.
A Market in Wait-and-See Mode
For market participants, this situation demands a strategic and patient approach. The formation of the Death Cross, coupled with low open interest, indicates that confidence in a short-term rebound is wavering. The market appears to be in a consolidation phase, awaiting a clearer directional cue.
The immediate task for HBAR is to defend the $0.162 support level. Holding this floor could provide the foundation for bulls to slowly rebuild their case. However, a decisive break below it would reinforce the bearish Death Cross signal and likely push the $0.20 target further out of reach, forcing traders and treasuries to adjust their risk management strategies accordingly.
