In late November 2025, Hedera (HBAR) experienced a tentative bounce, attempting to find its footing after a turbulent month. While the slight gain offered a glimmer of hope, it occurred within a broader context of technical fragility and a market-wide retreat from risk, leaving its near-term trajectory delicately balanced.
A Precarious Price Rebound
HBAR’s price action in the final week of November was a story of stabilization battling underlying weakness. After a sharp decline that saw it breach key support and fall towards $0.12 on November 21, the token managed a modest recovery. By November 27-28, HBAR was trading around $0.147, marking a short-term rebound of roughly 26% from its monthly low. However, this bounce was unspectacular, with HBAR underperforming the broader crypto market, which posted gains above 3.5% over the same period. The token remained trapped in a sideways trend, struggling to reclaim the crucial $0.15-$0.155 resistance zone, a level guarded by its 50-day Exponential Moving Average. This inability to decisively break higher, coupled with a -20% drop in its 24-hour trading volume to around $176 million, signaled that the recovery was built on shaky foundations and lacked strong buyer conviction.
Technical Signals and a Fragile Bullish Case
The technical picture presented a mixed but cautious outlook. Analysts pointed to a potential cup-and-handle pattern forming on shorter-timeframe charts, a generally bullish setup that required a clean breakout above $0.147 to $0.158 to be validated. Such a breakout could have opened a path toward $0.194. However, this optimistic pattern was on the verge of failing. Key momentum indicators, such as the Bull Bear Power (BBP), were already showing signs of weakening, suggesting buyers were losing control precisely when strength was needed most. Furthermore, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures institutional money flow, had remained negative, indicating that “big money” was not supporting the bounce. The most immediate threat was a breakdown below the $0.140-$0.143 support level. A daily close below this zone would not only invalidate the short-term bullish pattern but also expose the November low of $0.122, potentially triggering a new leg down.
Catalysts and Market Sentiment
Beyond the charts, HBAR’s market structure revealed a tension between institutional interest and weak retail sentiment. On one hand, positive fundamental developments provided a supportive backdrop. The Canary HBAR ETF recorded consistent inflows, with a single-day inflow of $986,000 on November 25, signaling sustained institutional demand for regulated exposure to the asset. This was complemented by HBAR’s reinstatement on the Coinbase 50 Index, which often prompts buying from funds that track the index. On the other hand, the broader market mood was a significant headwind. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index was mired in “Extreme Fear” territory at a reading of 20, while capital was rotating out of altcoins and into Bitcoin, as evidenced by a rising Bitcoin Dominance metric. This “risk-off” environment in the crypto sector made it difficult for any altcoin, including HBAR, to mount a sustained rally.
In summary, HBAR’s late-November price action reflected a fragile equilibrium. While institutional flows from ETFs and index inclusions provided a fundamental floor, the token struggled to overcome technical resistance and pervasive bearish market sentiment. For traders and investors, the key levels to watch were clear: a decisive break above $0.155 was needed to signal a potential trend change, while a loss of the $0.140 support would likely indicate that the path of least resistance remained downward.
